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Soybeans lurch higher pre-USDA data

12/10/2013 @ 7:41am

January CBOT soybeans rose Monday, driven higher by expectations that the U.S. Department of Agriculture will lower its domestic soybean stockpile estimate, in a monthly supply-and-demand report due out Tuesday. The USDA probably will forecast inventories on Aug. 31 at 159 million bushels, according to a survey of analysts by The Wall Street Journal. That is down from the government's November forecast of 170 million bushels but still up from last year's 141 million.

On the daily chart, January soybeans climbed to their highest level on an intraday basis since Sept. 19. The near-term trend pattern is bullish, but the market needs to rally through nearby resistance at $13.46-$13.46 3/4, the highs from Dec. 2 and Monday to continue to rally move. If a strong upside breakout is seen above $13.46 3/4 it would confirm a new leg up in market action. There is little resistance overhead, with a minor level at $13.63, the Sept. 19 daily high. A strong ceiling of major overhead resistance lies at the $13.97-$14,06 region, a series of highs from late August to mid-September, which would be a major bullish objective if an upside breakout is seen.

On the downside, strong nearby support lies at $13.11 1/4, the Dec. 3 low. If that level were to come out, it would be a bearish signal and would break the rising bull-trend pattern.

  • $14.09 3/4 -- the contract high
  • $13.28 1/4 -- the 10-day moving average
  • $13.12 3/4 -- the 20-day moving average
  • $12.95     -- the 40-day moving average
  • $9.22 1/2  -- the contract low

JANUARY SOYBEAN MEAL -- combined pit and electronic trading

January CBOT soymeal jumped higher Monday. The market shrugged off the recent corrective declines and is poised to retest the $442.10 high hit Dec. 2, which is important nearby resistance. A rally through $442.10 would be needed to open the door to a retest of the September high at $446.80. On the downside, Friday's low at $422.00 is now important short-term support. Declines under that floor would be a bearish signal and would break the recent rising uptrend pattern.

  • $451.20 -- the contract high
  • $430.70 -- the 10-day moving average
  • $421.60 -- the 20-day moving average
  • $412.10 -- the 40-day moving average
  • $234.00 -- the contract low

JANUARY SOYBEAN OIL -- combined pit and electronic trading

January CBOT soybean oil tumbled to a lower close Monday. The choppy sideways action continues. The near-term trend is neutral to lower. Important nearby support lies at 39.96 cents, the Dec. 3 low. Sustained losses under that level would open the door to a retest of the Oct. 2 low at 39.53 cents. Resistance remains at 41.06 cents. The market would need to climb above 41.06 cents to improve the short-term chart outlook.

  • 59.89 -- the contract high
  • 40.46 -- the 10-day moving average
  • 40.70 -- the 20-day moving average
  • 41.06 -- the 40-day moving average
  • 38.28 -- the contract low

Write to Kira Brecht at copydesk@dowjones.com
Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 10, 2013 08:00 ET (13:00 GMT)
DJ Soybeans Lurch Higher Ahead of USDA Data -- Technical Analysis->copyright

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