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Watch the 'dead cat bounce' for cash sale clues
We finished soybean harvest at my farm on Wednesday of this week. It was a very quick run of 15 days with the longest weather break amounting to about one hour on the Morning of October 4. The beans plants were tough this year. Some farmers switched to corn to give the plants a few days more time to dry out. The farmer I harvest with raises seed beans and he harvests as early as possible. He was able to grind through the tough conditions with a minimum of combine plugging problems. It is great not having to worry about snow on the standing soybeans as we had last year!
In a good growing season like this year it is a real pleasure totaling up the production to compare yields with other good years. Here in Cass County Nebraska we had a rain just as the group III beans were filling pods. Consequently I had record yields on my farm. This year’s production was nine bushels better than my ten year average and 2.6 better than the previous best year which was 1994.
I see that another soybean yield record was set this year in <?xml:namespace prefix = u1 />Missouri. For the record, I never publish yields on my farm. That practice goes back to my days of farming full time and renting from nine landlords. Suffice it to say that my production was no where near the 160 bushels recently announced by neighbors in the state south of Nebraska!
I am now watching the “dead cat bounce” for clues as to when to make my first cash sale. The bounce began officially on Tuesday, October 5. That means that the strength should continue until at least October 19 to complete ten trading days over the harvest low. The price has already exceeded the normal dollar a bushel over the harvest low. My dead cat bounce chart is on my website, www.soyroy.com.
It is amazing to have a year with record yields and cash prices near $11 per bushel. Knowing whether to sell at the current high prices or to wait for a 2008 style rally is a real challenge in the current marketing environment.