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Friday's report a breath holder

06/23/2013 @ 9:32pm

The much anticipated stocks/plantings report will be released Friday morning; many will be holding their breath on this one. Stocks are expected to show extremely tight supplies for corn and soybeans, and will be the final number for wheat 2012/13 ending stocks. Corn stocks have been all over the map for the last several quarterly reports, and this one will probably be no different.


Average estimates for corn acres seem to be coming in around 95.3 million, about 2 million less than USDA’s last estimate. For soybeans, the average guess is about 78.0 million, roughly 1 million higher than USDA’s last estimate. Spring wheat acres are estimated about 900,000 less at 11.8 million. The figures do not include flooded acres that will be lost, hurt, or replanted.

These estimates will remain a moving target due to the very late plantings and also because producers were still trying to plant when the survey was taken.

India looks like it will offer another 2 MMT of wheat for export, taking the total to 6.5 MMT for this year. However, their floor price remains well above current world price, effectively taking them out of the market at least for now, and they haven’t hinted that they’re ready to lower that price.

Normally, as we get into mid-June and the combines are moving into central Kansas, the harvest lows are established. This week could well turn out to be those harvest lows. In addition, with the strong move higher on Wednesday holding most of the gains through the end of the week, the technical picture looks more positive as well, with chart formations showing a double bottom with the April lows for Kansas City wheat, and a triple bottom for Chicago wheat. 

While upside may be limited near-term with the ongoing harvest and lack of stressful weather for corn, it’s looking more likely that long-term lows have been established for winter wheat, and very likely for spring wheat as well.

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