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On-farm ownership falls

04/04/2011 @ 8:44am

Wheat Commentary

Fundamental Support:

Wheat saw a round of profit-taking today. There was limited new news to affect the wheat pit today. With the corn market not able to hold its limit up move early, the wheat the trade took some of yesterday’s profit off the table. Remember the reports on Thursday were bearish for the wheat; it was corn spillover strength that lead to the wheat market gains. On the export front Jordan purchases 50,000 tonnes of optional origin hard wheat in a tender for 100,000. Funds were sellers of 4000 contracts on the day. For the week July Chicago was up 27 1/4 higher while the KC July wheat was up 51 1/2 for the week. The Minneapolis July contract was us 41 1/4 for the week. The Minneapolis and KC markets were stronger as they are being supported by weather problems and potential production problems. Now that the numbers are out of the way, the trade will really start to focus on weather, which should be considered bullish. The hard red wheat continues to miss rain. This combined with seasonal warming and increased evaporation rates have the crop under continued stress. The spring wheat crop will be watched to see if all the anticipated 14.4 million acres actually do get planted. With the big snow pack melting and more moisture on the way flooding is going to be a big problem. This could cause the farmers not to get all their intended acres in the ground, which would intern tighten the U.S. ending stocks.

Direction:

Ownership:

One thing we were interested from yesterday’s Grain Stocks report was farm ownership of this grain. The chart here shows farm ownership, at this late in the marketing year, is at three-year lows. Not only are buyers scrambling for quality high protein product, but there is simply not as much out there in farm hands to buy. 


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