Russia's grain exports in the 2012-2013 marketing year are likely to fall around 18% as the harvest is affected by a lack of moisture in the soil, the Agrarian Markets Institute, or IKAR, said Tuesday.

In a report, IKAR said grain exports are likely to fall to below 22 million metric tons from about 27 million tons in the 2011-2012 marketing year.

"The situation isn't unexpected, we knew the lack of moisture was likely to affect the harvest, but we never thought the problem would be so serious," it said, noting that its forecast for a five-million-ton fall in exports was optimistic and actual exports could prove even smaller.

IKAR said that in Russia's southern regions there had been no rain for two months, and farmers there were facing serious problems. The wheat harvest in the south was likely to fall 20% on year and the quality of the grain would also suffer, IKAR said.

In Siberia, in the central and east of the country, farmers faced the same problems after insufficient autumn rains and winter snow. IKAR said this year's Siberian grain harvest wasn't likely to exceed 13.3 million-13.5 million tons, compared with 14.6 million tons last year.

-By Grigori Gerenstein, special to Dow Jones Newswires; Write to Grigori at DJNews.Moscow@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 05, 2012 06:17 ET (10:17 GMT)