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Wheat Leads Grains Lower in Tuesday A.M. Trading

Jeff Caldwell 07/29/2014 @ 11:12am Agricultural content creator and marketer.

Since Monday afternoon's USDA Crop Progress report that showed a slight slip in crop conditions, the markets seem to have completely shrugged off that potentially -- though slightly -- bullish news to send the grains all trading lower, with wheat leading the downward slide after corn and soybeans spent most of Monday in the stratosphere.

At midday Tuesday, the nearby corn futures contract is 5 1/4 cents per bushel lower at $3.71 1/2, while soybeans are 12 1/4 lower at $10.95 1/2, according to Barchart.com. Nearby wheat led the other grains down the chute early Tuesday, trading 14 cents lower at $5.20 3/4 per bushel.

For the wheat trade, there's simply not much to fuel any bullish action, says Brugler Marketing & Management LLC analyst Alan Brugler.

"The U.S. winter wheat harvest is still cruising along at 83% complete. The five-year average would be 80%," he says. "Spring wheat heading matches the average pace of 93%. USDA shows 70% of the crop in good/ex condition, the same as last week but with 1% more rated excellent."

For corn and soybeans, exports remain a storyline to watch, Brugler says, especially for corn, with another potential export sale to Taiwan possibly in the works that could wind up aiding the cause for the bulls.

There's also a weather foe working against the wheat market bulls; good harvest weather conditions are helping aid late-season development in Ukraine, a naturally bearish factor on account of the potential global wheat supply implications of a bountiful crop in eastern Europe.

"The drier pattern is expected to continue in much of Ukraine through the next 10 days, which will improve harvest progress for winter wheat and will also increase quality again. Meanwhile, though, increasing dryness in Central Region, northern North Caucasus, and western Volga Valley will build stress on spring wheat, corn, and sunflower growth," says Don Keeney, senior ag meteorologist with MDA Weather Services. "Rains continue to improve moisture in northeastern Kazakhstan, Western Siberia, and northeastern Volga Valle, although temperatures there are quite cool."

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