Why no comment on demand/consumption?
Mark hegg 11/05/2011 @ 9:59pm
Without a comparison the commentary reveals very little. Ending stocks up only 3% is fairly important considering the issue of production that I think is overplayed in comparison. It is a diversion from future developments.
Regarding Egypt purchasing Black Sea wheat vs US wheat. The pattern has been established that as long as Black Sea wheat is available at minimally acceptable standards that is what Egypt buys. It is a completely rational outcome considering proximity and the fact that US wheat is generally a quite different quality than what the Black Sea sells to Egypt. In reducing it to the idea of competition the real issues are discounted. In fact competition is not really the dynamic.
The essential view considers that when prices are high the US generally exports more. Understanding why this is results in a better analysis of what is going on now. 'Competing' implies we are not selling cheap enough, but in fact, if we sold for less now - so would the 'competition' - resulting in no net gain for US farmers.
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