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CME soybeans rise in mixed trade

07/22/2010 @ 11:00pm

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture.com)--Fund-buying pushed up CME Group soybeans, and satisfactory weather pressured corn prices Friday. Traders still remain focused on world wheat weather.

The Dec corn futures settled 5 3/4 cents lower at $3.84 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract settled 2 cents higher at $9.81 1/2. The Sep. wheat futures ended 1/4 of a cent lower at $5.96 1/4. Dec. soybean meal futures closed $1.00 higher at $283.30 per short ton. Dec. soyoil futures closed 6 points higher at 39.76.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.28 lower per barrel, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 97 points.

Matt Pierce, Pitguru.com CME Group floor trader, says wheat is a market in bad shape. "Following the failure against the calendar-year high, there is little fresh out there to spark the next upside move. Thus, the sluggish activity heading into the weekend," Pierce says. The Russian and FSU losses have been priced in.

Pierce adds, "As for the lack of heat stress for corn and beans, I'm negative corn now looking for the recent 100K long contracts to run for cover soon. Nothing bullish with demand waning, the Chinese crop solidifying and basis falling, as farmers open their remaining old-crop bins."

For beans, the situation is a bit better, Pierce says. "Heat in August is a minor issue with demand the biggest factor," he says. "China took another 300K new-crop beans today and with Argentina and China embroiled in a political snafu, look for more from U.S. shores. This will also help bean oil regain lost ground against meal."

Jim Bower, Bower Trading Inc., says the weather makes it a very difficult market to analyze. "Especially, going into the month of August, as traders/producers/analysts try to assess the extent of wheat and grain production losses in the FSU and other parts of Europe."

Tim Hannagan, PFGBest.com senior market analyst, agrees that all eyes are on Europe's wheat weather. "Wheat’s current production shortfalls on foreign port producers is long from being known. Production numbers, or lack thereof , won’t come to light for another month as these countries lack the sophisticated tabulation system of the U.S. What we do know is, Russia is suffering their worst drought in 30 years, was a monster wheat exporter this past season, under-cutting U.S. prices dramatically and cutting our exports sharply, especially to number one world wheat buyer Egypt, once a reliable U.S. wheat buyer.

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