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Top-Notch Crop Weather & Tumbling Grain Markets

  • 01

    It's been a week of near-perfect crop weather in the Corn Belt, and that's driving the bears to run through the grain markets. With no real end in sight to the unseasonably mild temperatures, the market's spent the week looking for support.

  • 02

    The biggest story of the week has been the grain markets' continued slump and growing attention on the crop weather, which continues to exert little or no stress on the corn and soybean crops.

  • 03

    Despite continued good conditions, there has been some slip in overall crop ratings in the last week, USDA said this week. Overall soybean conditions dipped 2% in the last week, but 71% of the crop remains in good or excellent condition. Prices didn't react much to the ratings trim.

  • 04

    Will yield potential continue to trickle lower? "Maturity will be the next issue across the northern Corn Belt, but for now, weather remains fairly benign (although more rain is needed in the upper Corn Belt)," says market analyst Ray Grabanski this week. What do you think?

  • 05

    New analysis from the Commodity Weather Group projects the U.S. soybean crop will yield a record 46.1 bushels/acre. That's 4% above trend nationwide, with states including Illinois, Indiana, and Nebraska expected to raise record-high crops. Overall, the crop will add up to 3.88 billion bushels based on previous USDA acreage estimates.

  • 06

    While the signals from the field are bearish for the soybean trade, the same's true in the wheat pit. "Chicago wheat is managing to stay in a narrow trading range, bumping along at the bottom of a large down move. Kansas City and Minnesota have yet to find much support," one analyst said this week.

  • 07

    With prices in the basement right now (or on their way there), storing this year's grain on the farm. But, with yields expected to be sky-high, will it work out, cost-wise, this year? "While there is still risk of lower prices, a little patience in pricing additional quantities of the 2014 corn crop appears warranted," one economist said this week.

  • 08

    Will crop insurance make payments in 2014? "Currently, expectations are for low crop insurance payments in Illinois. Above-average yields likely will counter harvest prices that are below projected prices. Crop insurance payments in Illinois likely will be lower in 2014 than in 2012 and 2013," one economist said this week.

  • 09

    U.S. grain export industry leaders gathered this week to discuss the issues facing their business and how to deal with changes in their marketplace. Big issues discussed included the need for U.S. farmers to adopt conservation measures and infrastructure constraints.

  • 10

    Quality and shipping capacity were consistent themes during this week's U.S. Grains Council meeting in Omaha. The loading capacity of U.S. export elevators could become an issue as this nation increases production to meet global demands. "During certain times of the year, U.S. elevator capacity looks insufficient to feed the world," one official said.

The grain trade's hurting for any piece of bullish news as favorable crop weather dominates.

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