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3 Big Things Today, February 16

Soybeans, Grains Lower in Overnight Trading; NOPA Crush Shows Strong Demand For Beans.

1. Soybean, Grain Futures Lower in Overnight Trading

Soybean and grain futures were lower in overnight trading on favorable weather in countries with which the U.S. battles for exports.

The weather in central Argentina is expected to be “quite wet” for the next 10 days and then drier in the days after that, according to Commodity Weather Group. Brazil fieldwork is expected to accelerate in the next 10 days, and rain will benefit wheat production in Germany and Poland next week, according to the forecaster.

Prices also may be depressed on speculation that while Mexico won’t cut all U.S. corn imports as one senator from the country has suggested, it may seek supplies elsewhere. Marisa Bircher, the secretary of agro-industry markets in Argentina, told Reuters yesterday that it wants to increase exports of the grain and would like improved relationships with Mexico.

Soybean futures for March delivery fell 4¾¢ to $10.56½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal declined $1.20 to $345.70 a short ton, and soy oil lost 0.18¢ to 33.76¢ a pound.

Corn futures for declined 1¼¢ to $3.77½ a bushel in Chicago.

Wheat futures for March delivery were unchanged to $4.54¾ a bushel. Kansas City futures fell 1½¢ to $4.67¾ a bushel.

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2. Domestic Demand For Soybeans Strong as NOPA Crush Beats Expectations

Domestic demand for soybeans was reported stronger than expected yesterday, following increased local demand for corn.

U.S. processors crushed just north of 160 million bushels in January, beating estimates by about 1 million bushels, analysts said, citing the National Oilseed Processors Association. The figure is almost 7% higher than the same month a year earlier.

Meal exports last month were reported at 891,143, and while that was down 6% from December, it’s up by almost a third from January 2015, analysts said, citing the report.

Allendale’s Paul Georgy noted in a report that even using a “mild” 2% increase in soybean processing from February through the end of the marketing year on August 31, crush will beat projections by the Department of Agriculture by 4 million bushels.

Facilities from which the NOPA crush data is derived, which account for 94% of U.S. production, have processed 776 million bushels of soybeans since September 1, he said.

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3. Parts of Kansas, Missouri Under Red-Flag Warning, Burns Not Recommended

Much of eastern Kansas and western Missouri are in a red-flag warning this morning, meaning extremely dry conditions may lead to wildfires.

Winds are forecast from 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, the National Weather Service said in a report on Thursday morning. Humidity is pegged from 21% to 26% – extremely low – this afternoon, according to the agency.

“Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly,” the NWS said. “Outdoor burning is not recommended.”

The weather in the rest of the Midwest and Plains looks quiet this morning, though residents on the East Coast and in New England are seeing another round of heavy snow today. Some lake-effect snow is also falling in the Great Lakes region, the NWS said.

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