Corn, soybean export activity encouraging, economist says
Corn exports will rebound sharply during the current marketing year, and soybean exports are expected remain at the record level of the 2008-09 marketing year, according to new USDA projections.
"Corn exports during the 2009-10 marketing year are projected at 2.2 billion bushels, 237 million below the record exports during the 2007-08 marketing year, but 350 million above exports during the 2008-09 marketing year," says University of Illinois Extension economist Darrel Good in a university report.
"The U.S. share of the world corn export market is expected to increase from 60% last year to 65% this year. A larger U.S. share of the world export market reflects prospects for smaller crops in the exporting countries of Canada, South Africa and China," he says.
In addition, total world trade of corn is expected to grow by about 275 million bushels or nearly 9% due to smaller crops in Europe and Mexico and growing consumption in China.
"Soybean exports during the current marketing year are projected at 1.28 billion bushels, equal to exports during the 2008-2009 marketing year. The U.S. share of the world soybean export market is projected at 45%, about equal to that of last year as world soybean trade is expected to increase by only 25 million bushels or about 0.9 percent," Good says.
Larger imports by Japan and Mexico are expected to be offset by smaller imports by Western Europe and China.
One of the major factors that will influence export demand for U.S. soybeans during the last half of the 2009-2010 marketing is the size of production in Argentina and Brazil.
"Production in Argentina in 2009 was down 31% from production in 2008 due to dry weather conditions. Production in Brazil dropped about 7%. As a result of smaller production, Argentine exports dropped from about 510 million bushels to about 220 million bushels. Soybean exports from Brazil, however, increased from about 930 million bushels in 2007-08 to about 1.08 billion in 2009-2010. Inventories were reduced sharply in both countries," Good says.
For the 2010 harvest, the USDA has projected a 2 million acre increase in soybean plantings in Brazil and a 5 million acre increase in Argentina.
"A return to more normal yields would result in production increases totaling about 700 million bushels in Argentina and 185 million bushels in Brazil. The USDA expects Argentine exports to increase by 140 million bushels and Brazilian reports to decline by 180 million bushels during the 2009-10 marketing year," Good says.
Prospective supplies would allow for larger exports from both countries than is currently projected. Decisions by importers on sourcing soybeans will be important in maintaining record large U.S. exports.
The USDA weekly reports of export inspections and export sales provide the information to monitor the pace of export activity relative to projected exports for the year.
"Corn export inspection through the first 4.5 weeks of the marketing year was reported at 182 million bushels about 16 million above the total of a year ago. Inspections need to average about 42 million bushels per week to reach the USDA projection for the year," Good says.