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Soybean yields coming in better than expected

Agriculture.com Staff 09/21/2007 @ 8:48am

Farmers getting into their soybean fields are finding yields beyond their earlier expectations.

"She's big...and I mean real big!" writes Agriculture Online Marketing Talk member MNMan of the soybean crop in his area.

Leading right up to harvest, looks have been deceiving for Marketing Talk member north ia farmer. After riding a few rounds in the combine with one of his northern Iowa neighbors, he says yields are well ahead of what he expected.

"The yield monitor was reading in the 70s most of the time. Just looking at them, you would think there's no way they are 70-bushel beans," north ia farmer says. "Not many soybeans are harvested yet, but from what I'm hearing, they're better than most were thinking."

One week ago, northern Iowa and southern Minnesota farmers were facing a weekend freeze that some feared would trim top-end yields. This altered some new crop size estimates and consequently, had some farmers looking ahead to a winter market of record prices.

"It's two weeks early for a frost--lucky we piled on the heat units this year," says Marketing Talk member John From S. MN. "Beans will make record prices this winter...hang on to them."

Days after the frosty weekend -- when temperatures sunk to 28 degrees in Estherville and Mason City, Iowa -- John From S. MN. said yields weren't cut as far as he'd anticipated earlier. His "ugly, short" beans ended up better than he thought at between 43 to 45 bushels per acre, when he expected yields around 30.

This week's Iowa USDA-NASS Crop Progress report shows the frost didn't do as much damage as feared. Monday's report says both the corn and soybean crops were mature enough that the lower-than-normal temperatures weren't as harmful as feared.

"Most crops were mature enough not to be affected by the frost, but soybeans planted late in the season had leaves nipped," according to this week's report. As of Monday, 74% of the Iowa soybean crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition. In Minnesota, 53% of the soybeans are in good-to-excellent shape, with 31% in fair condition.

Turning to the market, the higher-than-expected soybean yields still won't mean a bearish move, according to Marketing Talk member unlgrad.

"Hold your beans--they're going to go past $10 and possibly to new highs like wheat did," unlgrad says. "Funds want to buy and they see a shortage in beans now. It doesn't seem possible with the bean yields that are coming out of our area, but I think we will hear all of the bad yields over and over and this thing keeps going up. Fundamentals mean nothing to beans. Techs rule at the moment."

Farmers getting into their soybean fields are finding yields beyond their earlier expectations.

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