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Big market decisions

Jeff Caldwell 07/08/2011 @ 3:34pm Multimedia Editor for Agriculture.com and Successful Farming magazine.

Still have some old-crop corn to market? So does Roy Smith. And, contrary to years past, that's not that bad of a thing this year, the Agriculture.com Market Analyst says.

"Contrary to my drop dead rule, I still have about 10 percent of last year’s crop left to market. In my June newsletter, I mentioned that there was the possibility of a squeeze in the September corn contract," Smith says. "That seems more likely now with the cash bid here in Eastern Nebraska at five cents under September futures. Maybe this will be the year that holding corn until August will be a profitable strategy."

At first glance, it may appear after last week's bearish USDA reports, the selling opportunities have come and gone in the grain markets, adds Market Analyst Ray Grabanski.

"Now, it appears we won't run out of corn, and with crop conditions back to an improvement this week, due to drying weather in already soggy areas, the corn market may indeed be in some trouble," he says. "If it weren't for the July contract being in delivery with tight stocks, the corn market could be running sharply lower right now."

But, even though they may have "already reached their peaks," Grabanski says there remain selling opportunities, and he even goes as far as to say it may be a good choice to sell ahead as far as 3 years.

"It appears that the grain markets have already reached their peaks, with wheat prices already sharply lower in recent weeks with corn closely on its heels (down from highs just a few weeks ago)," he adds. "These are still great sales areas, though, and producers should consider selling additional 2012, 2013, and 2014 crop corn, soybeans, and wheat as these prices are still very profitable prices."


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