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Cash grain: commerical supplies slide

09/08/2010 @ 4:36pm

Commercial inventories of U.S. cash grain waned this week, leaving elevators, terminals, ports and buying stations surveyed by the USDA filled to just 61% of total holding capacity. That level was down by 2 percentage points from last week, but was up 4 points from a year ago.

The agency said so-called 'visible supplies' of grain sorghum actually increased by 3.5%, as farmers pushed harvest of the nation's second-most important feed grain to 19% complete. Stockpiles of all other grains decreased however--fractionally for wheat, by 2% for oats, 16% for corn and 35% for soybeans.

Near-term export news appeared to have an immediate impact on the U.S. Gulf cash grain market Wednesday, sending barge basis bids for spot supplies of soft wheat down by 5 cents a bushel at midday, while lifting soybean premiums by as much as 4 cents.

"Soybeans are taking light support from steady demand, as China bought 4.2 million bushels [of U.S. soybeans] overnight," said MaxYield commodity trade advisor Karl Setzer.

Meanwhile, Egypt--the world's largest soft wheat market--chose French supplies over U.S. grain in an overnight tender for more than 8.8. million bushels of wheat.

"U.S. wheat is very vulnerable to swings in the dollar with yesterday's gains by the dollar possibly making U.S. wheat less competitive," noted the CME Group.

U.S. grain futures showed a hostile price reaction to news of the failed Egyptian tender, closing with cash-contract declines of more than 18 to 24 cents.

"In addition, Stats Canada reported Canadian wheat stock up 19% from last year," which was well above trade expectations, said Doane Agricultural Services.

Spot corn and soybean futures were also each about 3 cents weaker at the close Wednesday, although oats held firm.

Daily-average domestic basis averaged about 1 to 3 cents stronger for wheat entering Tuesday's trading session, although spot soybean basis had weakened by 3 3/4 cents.

Basis is normally regarded as the spread between a cash price and a selected futures price. Basis represents costs incurred by merchants in buying, storing, handling, merchandising, and shipping grain; plus a profit margin. These factors cause variation in cash bids for the same type of grain, at different elevator locations.

US CROP WEATHER

Remnants of the former Tropical Storm Hermine will move northeast through the southern Midwest and Tennessee Valley during the next few days, dumping excessive rains of 3 to 6 inches on parts of Kansas, central Missouri and southwestern Illinois.

"The rains will benefit late-planted soybeans in drier sections of Ohio, Indiana and the northern Delta, but only about a quarter of the total acreage in these areas is not yet turning yellow," indicating final maturity, said Advantage Grain. "Rains are focusing on the southeastern half of the Plains winter wheat belt this week, but will have the chance to extend further west in the central Plains around the middle of next week."

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