Corn, soybeans still behind pace -- USDA
On the heels of a monthly Crop Production report released earlier in the day that showed slightly lower yield potential for both corn and soybeans this fall, USDA showed no change in the last week in corn and soybean conditions in the agency's weekly Crop Progress report.
But some of the concerns that spawned a spike in prices after USDA's morning reports reveal a discrepancy in this year's crop progress and the normal pace. In terms of crop condition, things are in good shape. In terms of the development pace, they're not, says Al Kluis, market analyst and broker with Kluis Commodities.
"The most important number in today’s USDA Crop Progress report was the dent stage. The corn in dent stage was at just 5%, compared to 17% in the five year average and 39% last year," he says. "This shows how far the corn crop is behind normal. The crop is behind especially in Minnesota, North Dakota, Michigan and Wisconsin."
- See more from Monday's Crop Progress report
- Go on a 'motorcycle crop tour'
- Also: Temps cooling in the Corn Belt
- Latest precipitation observations
In general, the sustained relatively good crop conditions alongside slow crop development is a recipe for slightly higher prices if they move in lock-step with the Crop Progress data alone. However, Monday's other reports -- Crop Production and WASDE -- will lend even more support to the bulls, justifying something of a "wait-and-see" attitude with sales in the next few days, Kluis says.
"Today's report is neutral for prices. I expect corn to start out steady tonight. The soybean number is viewed as a little positive for prices and will likely take November soybeans up by 2 to 3 cents tonight," he says. "Be patient in making more new crop sales. The USDA report today is positive for new crop corn and soybean prices both short-term and long-term."