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Corn, soybeans still behind pace -- USDA

Jeff Caldwell 08/12/2013 @ 3:59pm Agricultural content creator and marketer.

On the heels of a monthly Crop Production report released earlier in the day that showed slightly lower yield potential for both corn and soybeans this fall, USDA showed no change in the last week in corn and soybean conditions in the agency's weekly Crop Progress report.

But some of the concerns that spawned a spike in prices after USDA's morning reports reveal a discrepancy in this year's crop progress and the normal pace. In terms of crop condition, things are in good shape. In terms of the development pace, they're not, says Al Kluis, market analyst and broker with Kluis Commodities.

"The most important number in today’s USDA Crop Progress report was the dent stage. The corn in dent stage was at just 5%, compared to 17% in the five year average and 39% last year," he says. "This shows how far the corn crop is behind normal. The crop is behind especially in Minnesota, North Dakota, Michigan and Wisconsin."

In general, the sustained relatively good crop conditions alongside slow crop development is a recipe for slightly higher prices if they move in lock-step with the Crop Progress data alone. However, Monday's other reports -- Crop Production and WASDE -- will lend even more support to the bulls, justifying something of a "wait-and-see" attitude with sales in the next few days, Kluis says.

"Today's report is neutral for prices. I expect corn to start out steady tonight. The soybean number is viewed as a little positive for prices and will likely take November soybeans up by 2 to 3 cents tonight," he says. "Be patient in making more new crop sales. The USDA report today is positive for new crop corn and soybean prices both short-term and long-term."

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GDU History 08/13/2013 @ 9:46am I posted this before, but thought I would try to reformat it. I have listed this site before, but I thought I would list again: http://classic.wunderground.com I did the weather history, and here is where 2013 ranks (#15 of the last 20 or so years): 2012 2115 2007 2090 2001 2037 2006 2036 2005 2013 2010 2005 2002 1954 2011 1857 1998 1783 1999 1779 2003 1688 1994 1664 1995 1654 2008 1649 2013 1615 2004 1593 1996 1537 2009 1530 1997 1482 2000 1425 1993 1344 This, coupled with some late planting, could make for an interesting Fall. corny

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