Home / News / Crops news / Continued drought likely -- forecaster

Continued drought likely -- forecaster

Jeff Caldwell 01/11/2013 @ 3:14pm Multimedia Editor for Agriculture.com and Successful Farming magazine.

Whether the U.S. is able to bulk up its grain stocks and keep up with demand depends entirely on the weather in the next few months and whether or not the drought continues to ravage corn, soybean and wheat country.

And based on the vibes Mother Nature's giving off now, a continued dry spell is likely, according to an outlook updated Friday by MDA EarthSat Weather senior ag meteorologist Don Keeney. The outlook is based on an analysis of the 10 hottest, driest years in the nation's midsection, on average, and what kind of conditions followed those years.

"We took a look at the top 10 temperature and precipitation analogs for the heat and dryness last summer, then projected those forward a year, to see if there were any discernible signals," Keeney says, adding the list comprised 1956, 1970, 1988, 1966, 1978, 1954, 1952, 1973, 1953 and 1960.

The result is a clear pattern of continued drought conditions in subsequent years. "Those analogs generally show a higher incidence of continued drier conditions the following summer, especially in the western Midwest and central and northern Plains," Keeney says. "The temperature analogs from this past summer, 2002, 1988, 1983, 1991, 2006, 2011, 2005, 1995, 2010 and 2007 also show a precedence for warmer temperatures in the Plains."

CancelPost Comment
MORE FROM JEFF CALDWELL more +

Dry Getting Drier, Wet Getting Wetter --… By: 04/17/2014 @ 8:37am Rain and snow last weekend and early this week was enough to put a dent in the general drought…

Soybeans blast off on strong processing data By: 04/15/2014 @ 3:27pm Soybean futures topped out Tuesday above $15/bushel for the first time in quite a while on news…

Farm Debt-to-Asset Ratios Lowest in 20 Years… By: 04/15/2014 @ 2:27pm Farm debt has increased a lot over the last two decades. Bad news, right? At the same time, general…

MEDIA CENTERmore +
This container should display a .swf file. If not, you may need to upgrade your Flash player.
Big Picture: CME Trading Weather