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Cooler, Drier Conditions Ahead -- Forecasters

Jeff Caldwell 07/16/2014 @ 10:04am Multimedia Editor for Agriculture.com and Successful Farming magazine.

Mother Nature keeps feeding the bears by preventing weather-related crop stress from mounting in much of corn and soybean country.

The latest summer-long outlook from MDA Weather Services shows a continued trend of cooler-than-normal temperatures in much of the Midwest and southeast U.S. through mid-September, a time frame in which the corn and soybean crops will likely feel little to no heat stress, says MDA senior ag meteorologist Don Keeney.

"The latest 31- to 60-day temperature outlook has trended warmer across the Plains, Prairies, and northwestern Midwest, while the central and eastern Midwest, Delta, and Southeast remains a bit cool," he says. "The continued lack of notable heat across the Midwest will prevent heat stress on any late growth of corn and soybeans."

That's good news, especially considering that a relative drydown could be in the cards later on this summer. But the areas where that dryness is most likely -- the northern Corn Belt -- have seen enough moisture up to this point that the corn and soybean crops won't likely be hurt by an extended period of dryness.

"The precipitation outlook has trended slightly drier in the northern Midwest, northern and southwestern Plains, and Prairies. The drier pattern in the northern Midwest is not expected to result in any significant stress on late growth of corn and soybeans, while the drier pattern in the northern Plains and Prairies will favor drydown and harvesting of the spring wheat," Keeney says. "The drier pattern in the southern Plains will favor early planting of winter wheat, but it will allow moisture to decline a bit."

Still, others say some areas could see some crop stress, namely for soybeans, if the dryness persists too much in parts of the Corn Belt.

"Moisture stays very limited over the bulk of the U.S. the next 10 days, with the exception of the southern Plains area," says Agriculture.com Marketing Talk veteran adviser Jennys_mn. "This could be a bad setup for the beans coming into August."

Weather Web Hits -- July 16

One Perspective on High Yield for 2014 U.S. Corn and Soybeans
Published: July 2, 2014
corn and soybean conditions near record good-to-excellent levels and the June acreage report behind us, market discussion is turning to the possibility of a high yield. This article will try to add perspective to this discussion. While most will focus on the numbers, the author's focus is to illustrate methods that use historical yield data to assess what are high yields.

Why Soybeans Planted Before Mother's Day Might Be Struggling
Published: July 15, 2014
Soybeans in many fields are struggling and growing slow. The majority of fields that are struggling were planted prior to the Mother’s Day weekend (the week prior to May 11th).  Here are some of the other observations seen: •    There are differences between genetics. Some genetics handle “wet feet” better than other genetics.

Cooler weather in North Dakota boosts some crops
Published: July 15, 2014
— Cooler weather across North Dakota has been a boost for small grains, canola and flaxseed. The Agriculture Department says in its weekly report that most major crops in North Dakota are rated in good condition. Canola conditions were at 85 percent good to excellent, and flaxseed was 77 percent good to excellent.

The 2014 U.S. Average Corn Yield: Big or Really Big?
Published: July 9, 2014
average corn yield in 2014 will set a new record, perhaps exceeding the previous record yield of 164.7 bushels in 2009 by a considerable margin. High yield expectations are based on generally favorable growing conditions to date and on the high percentage of the crop rated in good or excellent condition.

Some Corn, Soybeans 'On Track For Record Yields' -- Analyst, USDA
Published: July 14, 2014
Weather conditions continue to stay corn- and soybean-friendly, and the latest USDA Crop Progress data show that weather remains behind a steady climb in overall field conditions. Monday's weekly USDA report shows a 1% improvement in corn conditions nationwide. Corn pollinating is at 34%, this is up from 15% last week and 1% ahead of the 5-year average," says Kluis Commodities broker and analyst Al Kluis.

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