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Five-Day Forecast Favorable for Planting

Most areas of the Midwest will be dry for the next five days, opening up a window to move along planting progress for corn and soybeans. 

“A storm in the Mississippi Valley will bring rain into parts of Ohio and Kentucky on Friday and into Saturday,” says Dale Mohler, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather. “Late Sunday and Monday there will be showers in the western part of the Midwest. Other than that, the next five days will be dry with temperatures normal to 1°F. to 2°F. below average.”

6- to 10-Day Forecast

The rainfall anticipated for the western Midwest and Plains at the end of the weekend will spread east next week.

“From May 24 to 28, there will be above-normal rainfall across a large portion of the Midwest,” says Dan Hicks with Freese-Notis. “Temperatures during this time period will be above normal by 3°F. to 7°F. for most of the Midwest and near normal across the rest.”

Mohler agrees that there will be near- to above-normal rainfall in this time frame. However, he disagrees about the temperature.

“The state of the soil has some impact on air temperatures,” he explains. “If it’s wet and the sun is out, there is evaporation taking place that cools the air, so you lose some of the impact of the sun. When the ground is dry, the sun heats it more efficiently. With the same air mass in place, there can be a 5°F. to 8°F. difference in wet vs. dry soils.” 

For this reason, he believes temperatures will be a few degrees below normal. 

11- to 15-Day Forecast

From May 29 into early June, Mohler anticipates normal rainfall in the southern portion of the Midwest and below-normal rainfall in the north. 

Temperatures in this period will range from normal to above normal in the central and eastern U.S. with above-normal temperatures forecast in the Northern states, according to Hicks. 

June Outlook

The cooling effect of wet soil will continue to impact temperatures in June, according to Mohler.

“The wetness, which will be more than originally forecast, will slow down the rise of summer temperatures,” he says. “For this reason, the Midwest will have closer to normal temperatures than originally forecasted, most likely .5°F. to 1°F. above normal.” 

Hicks concurs that temps will be slightly warmer, trending above normal in northern parts of the Midwest. 

As far as rainfall goes, "typical summer rainfall varies widely across the Midwest, and it’s not expected to average too far from normal,” says Hicks. “Western parts of the Midwest have the greatest likelihood for above-normal rainfall while the eastern portion is more likely to be below normal.”

AccuWeather has updated its precipitation forecast slightly, anticipating that most of the Midwest will receive 85% to 90% of normal rainfall, which is slightly higher than Mohler’s original prediction.

Late May Weather Outlook

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