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Friday's weather & markets starter

Jeff Caldwell 04/19/2013 @ 8:18am Agricultural content creator and marketer.

The grain markets were mixed heading into Friday's CME Group session, with corn slightly higher and soybeans and wheat both slightly lower. But, there's likely support waiting in the wings in the form of freezing temperatures in the Plains, where the winter wheat crop's feeling the sting and could be losing major yield potential.

"25 degrees in Kansas this morning. 23 degrees in Texas. Should support wheat even though we are currently down 3 to 5 cents," said Agriculture.com and Trean Group market analyst and trader Scott Shellady on Friday morning.

"Looks like we dipped as low as 26 degrees here in central Kansas. Bad enough, but not as bad as it could have been. Kind of funny what a difference a couple degrees can make," says Agriculture.com Marketing Talk advisor Shaggy98. "My agronomist said we should be able to withstand temps as low as 24 again for a few hours. We went as low as 26, so hopefully we'll be okay again. Just saw the 7-day forecast and they're calling for freezing temps again next week; not a hard freeze but a freeze nonetheless. Ol' man winter just will not relinquish his grasp this year."

April continues to see extreme weather anomalies both in the Plains and Corn Belt, with farmers in both parts of the country seeing snowfall in the last 2 days, adding to what's been one of the wettest months of April in history, says Harvey Freese of Freese-Notis Weather, Inc.

"Rockford, Illinois, received an additional 1.61" yesterday, totaling 4.67" for the 2-day period which is the 2nd-wettest 2-day period during the month of April going back to 1905. This is the 4th-wettest April on record for Rockford. Further north, Grand Rapids, Michigan, reports rain totals so far this month of 8.96" making this April the wettest April on record for western Michigan," Freese said Friday morning. "There were widespread reports of 2-day totals across northern Illinois and Missouri in the 3" to 6" range with isolated heavier amounts near 10". Cedar Rapids, Iowa has received 326% of the normal precipitation during the past 30 days. The heavy rain for the month so far are filling the rivers across Illinois. Many rivers will hit moderate flood stages and a few will set new record flood levels."

As of Friday morning, more farmers say they're not yet in "worried" mode about the ongoing rain delays for corn planting. Thirty-four percent say they've "seen this before" and are not really nervous, while 24% say if the current weather system remains in place for another week, "then I'll worry." Still, 26% say they're either "about to lose my mind" or just starting to get nervous about the lingering cold, wet weather.

Looking ahead, the weather window will behave more like a revolving door, according to Friday's Commodity Weather Group (CWG) Ag QUICKsheet.

"There is a break possible for much of the 6- to 10-day before an 11- to 15-day shower event brings mostly normal rainfall to the region. These areas will see the slowest seeding progress over the next 2 weeks, while corn areas to the south and east will see the best opportunities for corn planting with the wettest weather in these areas late in the 6 to 10 day," according to CWG. "The northwestern belt will see more limited showers but will need to wait for soil temperatures to improve in the 11- to 15-day before seeding prospects improve."


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