Harvest weather seen improving
The national corn harvest progress figure this week at 15 percent done matched my own expectation but fell short of what the market was looking for.
The figure was close to the five-year average of 16 percent but was well short of a year ago when the harvest was past the 25 percent completion mark. Our first look at national soybean harvest progress showed that five percent of this year's national crop had been cut, six points slower than the five year average and ten points slower than a year ago.
Look for next Monday's report to show a lot of harvest progress getting done this week in the western Corn Belt (especially west of Interstate 35 and especially with regards to the soybean crop) where it will continue to be dry, but will show very little additional acreage getting cut in the eastern Corn Belt given the wet weather that has been seen there over especially the past 48 hours and some light additional rains and poor drying conditions expected through Friday.
Except for parts of southwestern Illinois, all of the eastern Corn Belt to the east of the Mississippi River has had over an inch of rain in recent days and it is not hard to find places with over three inches (such as Rockford, Dayton, Evansville, and Cincinnati).
I would look for the national soybean harvest figure next Monday to be in the 16 to 18 percent range, which would compare with 34 percent done last year and a five-year average of about 28 percent. Look for the national corn harvest progress figure to be in the 19 to 21 percent area, which would compare with 36 percent last year and a five-year average of 22 percent.
Conditions are eventually going to get a lot better for harvesting in the eastern Corn Belt, as dry weather that will be seen there by Saturday morning will last well into next week.
There may be an increase in rainfall chances in the 11-15 day time frame, but may favor those rains more towards the western Corn Belt (and by then, that area might appreciate some rain given how very dry it has been in recent weeks).
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