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High abandonment ahead for crop acres?

DANIEL LOOKER 06/28/2013 @ 12:08pm Business Editor

It's important to remember that today's planted acres report is partly planting intentions, says veteran University of Illinois economist and market analyst Darrel Good.

"I think we have to remember that when the survey was taken (finished), it was two weeks ago -- and it was started four weeks ago," Good told Agriculture.com.

On June 1, "I think people were still optimistic" that they would be able to plant, he said.

Good isn't certain what part of the planted acres reported today weren't really in the ground and could be considered intentions. "To what extent, we still don't know," he said.

"I don't think the numbers are quite as bearish as they appear on the surface," Good said.

One indication is that the difference between planted acres and USDA's projection of harvested acres is unusually large, he said.

Acres planted to corn are estimated at 97.4, but USDA projects a harvest of 89.1 million acres. That difference of more than 8.2 million acres is unusually large, Good said. Typically it's about 7 million acres.

That also suggests that some farmers responding to the survey are less optimistic about part of their planted acres. "They got it planted, but they know they won't get it harvested," Good said. He also believes it's possible that "more abandonment may be coming."

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