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Improved weather to stabilize ratings?

07/26/2011 @ 8:19am

Big heat last week in the Midwest created a sharp downturn in national corn and soybean crop ratings for the week ending July 24. National corn ratings were down four percentage points in the good/excellent category, taking that figure to 62 percent good/excellent. That figure is now a full ten percentage points below a year ago (on a crop that yielded below 153 bpa on a national basis) and is also below the values given to the 2008 and 2009 crops for around this same time (though the rating is higher than the crops of 2005 through 2007).

It is not a state that gets a lot of attention in the marketplace, but one has to point out the huge drop in Pennsylvania corn ratings this week, falling all the way from 58 percent good/excellent last week to just 28 percent this week (and two weeks ago the crop was rated 70 percent good/excellent). Other states showing notable deterioration in corn ratings this week include Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio.

For soybeans, the national rating of 62 percent good/excellent was down two percentage points from last week. The crop is now five percentage points worse than a year ago in that category and is also rated below the crop of 2009, but is still rated at or better than the crops of 2005 through 2008 as of late July. Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, and South Dakota were the states seeing the biggest deterioration in their soybean ratings.

We will likely see some stabilization in ratings for next Monday's numbers, given that this week will not be as hot as last week and some of the region has really seen an improvement in soil moisture as of late. It would be hard to expect major improvement in crop ratings though, given the lateness in the season (we are closing in on the time of year when crop ratings normally start to decline even in the best of years), the heat that will be seen for Wednesday and Thursday, and the fact that southeastern parts of the region still remain mostly short of moisture and have the worst rainfall chances coming up.

Freese-Notis Weather, Inc. Des Moines, Iowa Copyright 2011 - All Rights Reserved

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