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Improved weather to stabilize ratings?

Big heat last week in the
Midwest created a sharp downturn in national corn and soybean crop ratings for
the week ending July 24. National corn ratings were down four percentage points
in the good/excellent category, taking that figure to 62 percent
good/excellent. That figure is now a full ten percentage points below a year
ago (on a crop that yielded below 153 bpa on a national basis) and is also
below the values given to the 2008 and 2009 crops for around this same time
(though the rating is higher than the crops of 2005 through 2007).

It is not a state that gets
a lot of attention in the marketplace, but one has to point out the huge drop
in Pennsylvania corn ratings this week, falling all the way from 58 percent
good/excellent last week to just 28 percent this week (and two weeks ago the
crop was rated 70 percent good/excellent). Other states showing notable
deterioration in corn ratings this week include Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky,
Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio.

For soybeans, the national
rating of 62 percent good/excellent was down two percentage points from last
week. The crop is now five percentage points worse than a year ago in that
category and is also rated below the crop of 2009, but is still rated at or
better than the crops of 2005 through 2008 as of late July. Indiana, Kansas,
Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, and South Dakota were the states seeing the
biggest deterioration in their soybean ratings.

We will likely see some
stabilization in ratings for next Monday's numbers, given that this week will
not be as hot as last week and some of the region has really seen an
improvement in soil moisture as of late. It would be hard to expect major
improvement in crop ratings though, given the lateness in the season (we are
closing in on the time of year when crop ratings normally start to decline even
in the best of years), the heat that will be seen for Wednesday and Thursday,
and the fact that southeastern parts of the region still remain mostly short of
moisture and have the worst rainfall chances coming up.

Freese-Notis Weather, Inc.
Des Moines, Iowa Copyright 2011 - All Rights Reserved

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