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More Midwest rain

06/24/2011 @ 10:52am

Rainfall in the Midwest this month has been especially big (over double the normal level) for southeastern Iowa, northeastern Missouri and western/southwestern Illinois, and I increasingly fear that same areas (as well as places to the east in central Indiana and southern Ohio) may see yet another round of heavy rain through Monday night. It is very cool right now in the Midwest (just 60s for highs in some areas yesterday; Minneapolis had a record-low maximum temperature of just 63 degrees) but it remains scorching hot in the southern Plains (as warm as 106 yesterday at Childress; record highs were scored at Wichita Falls, Amarillo, and Dalhart).

The heat in the southern Plains (where some places may reach 110 this weekend) is going to try to come northeast this weekend, but the cool in the Midwest will be stubborn to move out. That is going to create quite a clash of air masses (a "battle zone", if you will) this weekend before a cool front moving through the Midwest Monday night ends the rainfall threat.

A lot of the Midwest will probably see one to two inches of rain through Monday night, but southeastern Iowa, far northeastern Missouri, central parts of Illinois and Indiana, and southern Ohio could be areas that see deluges of rain on the order of 2 to 4 inches and locally heavier. Tuesday is a cool day in the Midwest with less humidity, but it still looks like we will end June and begin July on a hot note.

Especially June 30 and July 1 will feature a lot of 90-plus degree heat in the Midwest but potentially could be 100 degrees for Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri. There is good model agreement though that this will not be a lasting feature though, with cool weather forecast to return by no later than July 4 (probably earlier than that).


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