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Parched southern Plains get a sip

09/22/2011 @ 9:17am

A mixed row-crop harvest pattern, minimal wheat-area moisture, warm and dry conditions in the Canadian Prairies, isolated showers in Argentina, mild trends in northern China, dryness concerns in Ukraine, variable conditions in India, and dry-weather concerns for wheat in Australia are the main weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

Mixed Row Crop Harvest Pattern

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for drier and warmer weather that will improve conditions for the harvest of crops through the Northern Plains region. Drier weather favors the harvest activities through the western Midwest as well. Cool and damp to wet weather is unfavorable for late-maturing crops through the eastern Midwest.

Minimal Winter Wheat Moisture

In the Southern Plains wheat areas, rainfall Wednesday night and Thursday will help recharge soil moisture for wheat in Oklahoma and north Texas but more rain is needed. Dry weather still looks to dominate the region after today through at least day eight. After that there is some uncertainty in the dry weather outlook.

Warm and Dry in Prairies

Canadian Prairie crop regions will be drier with much warmer temperatures through the end of this week and early next week. This will help improve conditions for late-maturing canola and for the harvest.

Isolated Argentina Showers

In Argentina, there is a slight chance for a little light rain through the driest of the southwest wheat belt during the next few days. Otherwise the trend towards dry and very warm weather continues until late in the 10-day period when cooler weather returns.

Mild Trends in Northern China

In northern China, drier and warmer weather will favor maturing summer crops during the balance of this week and early next week, especially through areas of the North China Plain that have been very wet recently. Drier weather will also help improve conditions for planting winter wheat across the central China region. Soil moisture and irrigation for winter wheat should be adequate or better, except it may still be somewhat drier through southeast areas.

Dryness Concerns in Ukraine

In Ukraine crop areas, dry weather and variable temperatures will favor fieldwork and planting of winter wheat. However, reports suggest that some areas are too dry and this may affect planting progress, especially in western areas. The chances for beneficial rains in the region appear fairly limited during the next seven to eight days, at least.

Variable Pattern in India

The India monsoon appears to be withdrawing from the northwest at this time while at the same time rain is diminishing in the south. Rain continues over northeast India and Bangladesh and this rain may drift westward into the eastern Ganges plain. Dry weather through the northwest favors summer crops after a very active monsoon rainy season. Irrigation and soil moisture will likely be adequate for winter crops as well. Dryness in south India is not favorable as this area will need further rains to support late warm-season crops and also cool season crops, but it is not critically dry at this time. Rains in the northeast are likely unfavorable for maturing summer crops, with severe flooding likely occurring.

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