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Pre-report acreage estimates piling up
Jeff Caldwell
03/21/2012 @ 1:35pm
Multimedia Editor for Agriculture.com and Successful Farming magazine.
Corn and soybean acreage estimates are coming in ahead of next Friday's likely market-moving USDA Prospective Plantings report. And, those numbers are starting to creep higher.
Last week, Informa Economics released a corn acreage estimate of 95.5 million acres, well higher than most market-watchers expected at that time. Now, that's right about in line with where analysts expect the acreage number to fall. Analysts with PFGBest.com in Chicago released early planting estimates Wednesday, pegging corn at 94.5 million acres and soybeans at 75.9 million, up 1 million from last year. Other traders say 95 and 75 million are likely median targets.
"We're probably trading about 95.5 million acres on corn," says Scott Roose of U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa. "You're probably going to see bigger corn acres and bigger bean acres. We're seeing more ground coming into production."
The soybean number, Roose says, will likely fall in the 74.5 to 75.5 million-acre range. While the corn acreage range is around 4 million acres higher than a year ago, the soybean number's closer to 2011. But, that could be changing. "I'd say the bean acres could be up, with this $2.40 rally on beans. Did we buy acres? I'd say absolutely," Roose adds. Where are the acres coming from? Roose, who farms in northeast and central Iowa, says the majority is likely coming out of CRP. And, in many cases, finding a way to squeeze an extra acre in wherever possible. "With ground renting for $300 to $500/acre, people are saying they're going to plant closer to the fencerow this year to try to get that extra 3 acres," he says. |
