Rainfall Dotting Corn Belt, Southern Plains -- Forecaster
Most of the Midwest is quiet this morning as a slow moving disturbance remains nearly stationary across the Central Plains. This disturbance will slowly travel east-southeastward through the day with most of the Corn Belt remaining dry. High temperatures will be seasonable across most areas with 70s to lower 80s across the extent of the Midwest.
Tonight, this weak low pressure center will begin its approach towards Illinois, with showers and embedded thunderstorms overspreading southern and central portions of the state through dawn tomorrow. As we head through tomorrow afternoon, beneficial rainfall will overspread Indiana and Ohio, with generally dry conditions across the western Corn Belt. High temperatures tomorrow will be seasonably cool in the 60s and 70s, with a few lower 80s possible across far southern areas.
Wednesday, isolated showers may linger across Illinois and the Ohio Valley while more dry weather will be in place to the west. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s, although a few readings in the upper 60s are possible across northeastern Illinois. Thursday and Friday, upper-level ridging will afford mainly dry and seasonable weather throughout the Midwest with very favorable crop conditions expected.
Rainfall totals through Friday (most of which falls through Wednesday), will range from 0.1 to 0.5 inch across much of Iowa, eastern Nebraska, southern Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Amounts increase to 0.5 to 1.0 inch across northwestern Illinois, with 1 to 2 inches across the remainder of the Midwest. As we head into the weekend, the northwestern Midwest will become more active as warm, most air streams northward into the region ahead of an upper-level trough of low pressure.
This may lead to an above-average period of rainfall for the 6- to 10-day period, although confidence is low due to significant discrepancies between our computer models. Temperatures will trend near to slightly above normal, with little to no long-range support being noted for any bullish weather market signals. This past Friday our models were hinting at a possible ridge, which did swing the corn market in the upside. However, weekend guidance favors near-ideal growing conditions across the Corn Belt through the extended period.
Across the Southern Plains, conditions have been slightly more bullish thanks to heavy rains leading to disruptions in the HRW Wheat harvest. It does appear that more rain chances will linger acrosss the region over the next five days, although the Southern Plains should trend drier from south to north in the 6- to 10- and potentially 11- to 15-day periods.
Thus, it is expected that harvest conditions gradually improve later this week across Oklahoma and Texas with Kansas enjoying better harvest conditions later in the 6- to 10-day.
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