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Reaction: Soybean data supportive

06/12/2012 @ 7:09am

DES MOINES, Iowa (Agriculture.com)--The USDA released friendly data Tuesday for the CME Group soybean and wheat markets. The report is bearish for the corn market.

In its June Production, Supply and Demand Reports, the USDA estimated the U.S. 2011-12 corn ending stocks at (851 million bushels, vs. the trade estimate of 828 million bushels and its May estimate of 851 million. For 2012-13, the U.S. corn ending stocks are estimated at 1.88 billion bushels vs. the trade's estimate of 1.74 billion bushels and the May estimate of 1.881 billion. 

Jason Ward, Northstar Commodity Trading analyst says the report is unfriendly for the corn market. "I see the numbers as bearish for the corn market, bullish old-crop soybeans and friendly new-crop beans. Also, the report is seen as friendly for wheat. It's interesting how they are already adjusting new crop usage already to keep carryout above 100 million bushels, 14 months in advance. Just shows how much demand rationing beans have to do," Ward says.

USDA estimates the U.S. 2011-12 soybean carryout at 175 million bushels vs. the trade's average estimate of 197 million bushels and its May estimate of 210 million bushels. For 2012-13, the USDA estimates the U.S. soybean carryout at 140 million bushels vs. the trade's estimate of 147 million bushels and its May estimate of 145 million. 

For the U.S. 2011-12 wheat ending stocks, the USDA estimates 728 million bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 757 million bushels and its May estimate of 768 million. For 2012-13, the USDA pegs the U.S. wheat ending stocks at 694 million bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 728 million bushels and the May estimate of 735 million.

U.S. Wheat Production

The USDA estimates the 2012-13 U.S. All Wheat production at  2.234 billion bushels compared to the average trade estimate of 2.222 billion bushels and the May estimate of 2.245 billion.

Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Funds analyst says the global wheat markets look balanced as expected, based on the report's data. 

"Today’s report for corn maintains optimism for both production and a rebuild of global stock levels, including a slight increase in corn use for ethanol production, largely as the trade expected. Weather and yield potential moving forward will dictate future movements in the corn markets," Gilbertie says. 

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