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Soybeans close 11¢ higher

01/15/2014 @ 9:25am

DES MOINES, Iowa (Agriculture.com)--The CME Group soybean market capped off a three-day rally, while corn and wheat closed lower Wednesday.

The March corn futures contract closed 5 3/4 cents lower at $4.25. The March soybean futures contract settled 11 cents higer at $13.18. March wheat futures closed 11 1/2 cents lower at $5.67 per bushel. The March soymeal futures contract finished $4.40 per short ton higher at $434.50. The March soyoil futures closed $0.23 higher at $37.99.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.75 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 115 points higher.

Peter Meyer, PIRA Energy Senior Director of agricultural analysis, says the soybeans have been the most impressive, by far, as it becomes more obvious by the day that the U.S. is the supplier of choice, especially to China.  "The size of the South American soybeans crops could be massive but none of the logistical issues found in South America are of concern when buying U.S. soybeans.  At 150 million bushels in carry-out, it’s pretty obvious that’s the USDA’s pipeline number and we’re empty," Meyer says.

There is too much corn and wheat globally to get much upside traction, he says.  "Additionally, the relative weakness in new crop soybean futures suggests that a meaningful acreage shift from corn to soybeans in the U.S. may not be a certainty.  With the November soybean/December corn ratio under 2.5:1, the market is buying corn acres in an over-supplied market.  Not a good scenario," Meyer says.

 Overall, Meyer remains bearish across the board.  "The only story for an upside move is the heat and dryness in Argentina, but it’s way too early in the season to be making assumptions on crop losses," he says.

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