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Uncertainty limits grain delivery intentions

08/29/2011 @ 2:25pm

Deliveries against Chicago Board of Trade September soybean and corn contracts on first notice day are expected to remain light in an environment where new crop production remains uncertain.

First-notice day for the contracts is Tuesday, which means it is the first day on which notices of intention to deliver actual commodities against futures-market positions can be received.

Most analysts expect delivery notices against the September soybean contract to fall in a range of none to 100 contracts, and corn in a range of none to 200 contracts. Analysts cite cash supplies trading above the value of a deliverable futures contract, making it less attractive to deliver supplies.

Commercial grain firms want ownership and won't risk losing inventories, said Don Roose, president of Iowa based brokerage and advisory firm U.S. Commodities.
Soybeans registered for delivery at CBOT-approved elevators totaled 44 contracts and no corn was registered as of 5 p.m. Friday.

Analysts anticipate only a small amount of supplies registered will be delivered on first notice day.

"With prices the way they are and seeing that we're still a bit ahead of harvest, I would expect corn deliveries would be moderate to light," said John Kleist, senior analyst with ebottrading.com.

Analysts expect light deliveries against the CBOT September wheat contract, as storage charges make it more attractive for owners of supplies to hold them.

Wheat registered at CBOT-approved elevators totaled 55 contracts, and analysts anticipate only a small amount of supplies registered will be delivered on first notice day.

Meanwhile a moderate amount of soymeal inventories is expected to be made available to the delivery process, while soyoil deliveries are expected to remain large, consistent with prior delivery periods. Holders of receipts are expected to put out a large quantity because of big available soyoil inventories and demand from the biodiesel industry not reaching levels that will draw down current inventories.

Analysts expect deliveries against CBOT September soyoil in a range of 2,000 to 5,000 contracts. Soymeal deliveries are seen between zero and 200 contracts.

As of 5 p.m. EDT on Friday, 15,309 soyoil contracts, and 346 soymeal contracts were registered for delivery at CBOT-approved warehouses.


-By Andrew Johnson Jr., Dow Jones Newswires; (312) 347-4604; andrew.johnsonjr@dowjones.com
--Tom Polansek contributed to this article.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 29, 2011 14:42 ET (18:42 GMT)

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