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USDA data drops soybean market

02/08/2013 @ 11:13am

DES MOINES, Iowa (Agriculture.com)--The USDA released bearish world soybean data Friday. However, its February Supply/Demand and World Production Reports support for wheat markets.

As a result, the soybean market dropped 12 cents, after the numbers were released at 11:00am CT Friday. 

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Jason Ward, Northstar Commodity analyst, says the report's U.S. numbers were a little friendly to soybean and wheat fundamentals, while slightly negative to corn.

"But, since this is already built into the market, the prices are not following suit," Ward says.

Meanwhile, it is the world numbers that are bearish across and probably limit any upside, Ward says. 

For the 2012-13 marketing year (ending Sept. 1), the USDA estimates the U.S. corn carryout at 632 million bushels vs. the average analyst estimate of 615 million bushels and the government's January estimate of 602 million. 

USDA sees the 2012-13 U.S. soybean carryout at 125 million bushels vs. the average analyst estimate of 129 million bushels and the USDA's January estimate of 135 million.

The U.S. 2012-13 wheat carryout is pegged at 691 million bushels compared to the average analyst estimate of 728 million bushels and the USDA's January estimate of 716 million.

WORLD PRODUCTION

USDA pegged the 2012-13 Brazilian corn production at 72.5 million metric tons vs. the average analyst estimate of 71.1 mmt and the USDA's January estimate of 71.0 mmt. 

For soybeans, Brazil's 2013 production is estimated at 83.5 mmt vs. the average analyst estimate of 83.1 mmt and the USDA's previous estimate of 82.5 mmt.

Argentina's 2013 corn production is estimated at 27.0 mmt vs. the average analyst estimate of 26.6 mmt and the USDA's previous estimate of 28.0 mmt.

In its report, the USDA pegged the 2013 Argentina soybean crop at 53.0 mmt vs. the average analyst estimate of 53.0 mmt and the USDA's previous estimate of 54.0 mmt.

"The wildcard is the fact that traders are short covering in the wheat, which if that happens could support corn. Remember corn down 30 cents coming into today so a bounce at anytime could occur," Ward says.

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