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USDA data friendly, traders waver

11/08/2011 @ 3:24pm

DES MOINES, Iowa (Agriculture.com)--The USDA released friendly data Tuesday in its November Crop Production Report.

As a result of the Report's numbers, Early Calls for corn are 5-10 cents higher, 2-4 cents higher for soybeans, and wheat steady Wednesday.

PRODUCTION

For corn, the USDA estimates the 2011 crop production at (12.31 billion bushels, compared to the average analysts estimate of 12.402 billion bushels and the government's October estimate of 12.433 billion.

The U.S. corn yield is estimated at 146.7 bushels per acre, vs. the average  trade estimate of 147.9 bu./acre and the USDA's October estimate of 148.1 bu./acre.

For soybeans, the U.S. crop production estimate has been moved to 3.046 billion bushels, compared to the average trade estimate of 3.059 billion bushels and the USDA's previous estimate of 3.060 billion bushels.

The U.S. 2011 soybean yield has been pegged at 41.3 bushels per acre, compared to the average trade estimate of 41.5 bu./acre and the USDA's October estimate of 41.5.

U.S. CARRYOUT

In its report, the USDA estimates the U.S. 2011-12 corn carryout at (843 million bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 801 million bushels. 

For soybeans, the U.S. carryout is estimated at 195 million bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 185 million bushels.

The 2011-12 U.S. wheat carryout is estimated at 828 million bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 819 million bushels and the USDA's October estimate of 837 million.

REACTION

Jason Ward, Northstar Commodity Investment Co. analyst, says the Report is friendly for corn, but questions remain. 

"The USDA dropped feed use-for-corn 100 million bushels, which nearly offset the entire yield decline. This is a question mark in my opinion because profitability is at such high levels for livestock feeders. But, it did prevent a big shock to the ending stocks for corn. I think traders will see through this," Ward says. 

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