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USDA data seen as bullish

08/10/2011 @ 3:45pm

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture.com)--The U.S. 2011 corn and soybeans crops may be getting smaller, according to the USDA estimates Thursday. 

In its August Crop Production and Supply/Demand Reports Thursday the USDA released bullish data for the farm markets, CME Group traders say.

Early calls for the commodities are higher. Corn is called anywhere between 10-15 cents higher to 'limit up'. Soybeans are called 10-20 cents higher and wheat 15-20 cents higher.

"The report is shockingly bullish for beans and corn. Yields slashed to levels far below the average guess. Corn production under 13 billion is long term bullish. Now we have to ask, what if it's really a 151 average yield," Matt Pierce, GrainAnalyst.com analyst and CME Group floor trader says.

Production

For the 2011 U.S. corn crop, the USDA estimates a production amount of 12.914 billion bushels, compared to the average analysts estimates of 13.083 billion bushels and the USDA's July estimate of 13.470 billion bushels.

The 2011 U.S. corn yield is estimated at 153 bushels per acre vs. the USDA's July estimate of 158.7 and the average trade estimate of 155.2 bushels per acre.

For soybeans, the U.S. 2011 production is pegged at 3.056 billion bushels compared to the average analysts estimate of 3.174 billion bushels and the government's previous estimate of 3.225 billion bushels.

The USDA estimates the 2011 U.S. soybean yield at 41.4 bushels per acre vs. the July estimate of 43.4 and the average trade estimate of 42.8 bushels per acre. 

Planted & Harvested Acres

USDA left 2011 planted corn acres at 92.3 million and slightly adjusted soybean acres to 75.0 million. The traders turned their attention to harvested acres. Well, the USDA only dropped harvested corn acres by 500,000 acres to 84.4 million.


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