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USDA data seen slightly bullish

09/10/2010 @ 7:30am

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture.com)--The USDA released slightly friendly crop figures Friday, CME Group floor traders say.

Early calls for corn are 2-3 cents higher, soybeans 2-4 cents higher, and wheat is seen following. Some traders believe soybeans could open 10 cents lower. There seems to be very little consensus on early calls.

For 2010 U.S. corn, the USDA estimated production at 13.160 billion bushels, compared to the average analysts estimate of 13.199 billion bushels and the government's August estimate of 13.365. 

For 2010 U.S. soybeans, the USDA pegged production at 3.483 billion bushels, vs. its August estimate of 3.433 billion bushels and a range of analysts guesses between 3.355 to 3.500 billion bushels. 

Tim Hannagan, PFGBest.com senior analyst, says the report is a tough one to call. "One analyst says, "Corn came out bullish with yields at 162.5 well under pre-report estimates of 163.1 and last month of 165.0. This puts production at 13.160 versus last month at 13.365. Soybeans were a little bearish with production over the average estimate by 77 m.b. at  3.483 b.b. Wheat was a little neutral with ending stocks down only 50 m.b. from last month. Plus, USDA left all Russian wheat production estimates unchanged  on the month.  Overall, the numbers are bullish long term, heavy buying prior the report could be met with profit taking."

 Jason Ward, Northstar Commodity Investment Co., says initially the report looks bearish beans and friendly corn.

"The corn is friendly because the old crop stocks came down to 1.386 billion bushels. A lot of people will overlook this but it equates to 0.8 bushels/acre less corn so it's almost as if the yield is 161.7 bpa

instead of 162.5," Ward says. The yield and carryout for next year for corn are right on the trade estimate. So, it's hard for me to call it there, but I'm thinking friendly tone for corn.

Ward adds, "For soybeans, I didn't find anything real friendly. The yield increased to 44.7 bushels per acre, as the trade thought it would come down. Stocks at 350 million are safe and it should take some premium out of the bean market."

U.S. Ending Stocks

In its report, the USDA estimate the 2009-10 corn carryout at 1.386   billion bushels, compared to the average trade estimate of 1.412 billion bushels and the USDA's August estimate of 1.426 billion.

2010-2011 U.S. corn ending stocks are pegged at 1.116 billion bushels, compared to the average trade estimate of 1.125 billion bushels and its previous estimate of 1.312 billion in August.

The 2009-10 U.S. soybean ending stocks projection is 150 million bushels, compared to the average trade estimate of 151 million bushels and the August estimate of 160 million.

For soybeans, the USDA estimates the 2010-2011 U.S. ending stocks at 350 million bushels compared to the average trade guess at 304 million bushels and the government's August estimate of 360 million.

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