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USDA data to push up soybean market

03/08/2012 @ 1:45pm

DES MOINES, Iowa (Agriculture.com)--The USDA released market-friendly data for soybean prices Friday. 

CME Group floor traders see the Early Call for commodities higher. For corn, the market is seen opening 3-5 cents higher, soybeans 5-7 cents higher, and wheat 7-9 cents higher.

In its March world crop production and U.S. and world supply and demand reports, the USDA lowered South America soybean estimates.

World Grain Production

For Brazil, USDA dropped that country's 2011-12 soybean production from 72.0 million metric tons to 68.5 mmt, compared to the average analyst estimate of 69.5 mmt.

Argentina's 2011-12 soybean production is estimated at 46.5 mmt, vs. the USDA's February estimate of 48.0 mmt and the average analysts estimate of 47.0 mmt.

Meanwhile, USDA left unchanged the 2011-12 Argentine corn production estimate from 22.0 mmt in February to 22.0 mmt. today, all compared to the average analysts estimate of 21.3 mmt.

U.S. Carryout 

In its supply and demand report, the USDA estimates the U.S. 2011-12 corn carryout at 801 million bushels, vs. its February estimate of 801 million bushels and the average analysts estimate of 784 million.

For soybeans, the USDA pegs the U.S. 2011-12 carryout at 275 million bushels, compared to 257 million bushels and its February estimate of 275 million bushels.

The USDA dropped/raised its U.S. 2011-12 wheat carryout estimate to 825 million bushels vs. its February estimate of 845 million bushels and the average analysts estimate of 838 million bushels. 

Trade Reaction

Jason Ward, Northstar Commodity Investment Co. analyst says the report is friendly for all commodities.

"The only change in US stocks was a 20 million bushel reduction in the wheat stocks, surprised they left beans unchanged, corn not so much as they lowered corn 50 million in each of the last two reports

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