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USDA preview: Beans up, corn stable

10/10/2011 @ 2:37pm

Favorable yield results from the 2011 U.S. soybean harvest have most analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires anticipating a modest increase on Wednesday in the U.S. Department of Agriculture's 2011 soybean crop projection.

USDA is scheduled to release its latest forecast for production, inventories and demand on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT).

Most analysts look for yields to be increased in the report, but uncertainty has been raised about the potential for lost acres, as USDA incorporates reductions in the number of acres affected by flooding or drought reported by the USDA's Farm Service Agency.

In recent weeks, several private firms have released crop estimates that were above the USDA's September forecast.

"Despite concerns over finishing weather in many areas of the Midwest, soybean yields have generally exceeded expectations, as a result, we have increased our national bean yield 1.2 bushels per acre from our September estimate," analysts at the Linn Group in Chicago wrote in a pre-report market letter.

For October, the USDA will forecast the soybean harvest at 3.094 billion bushels, up 0.3% from its estimate a month ago, according to the average prediction of 23 analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. Estimates ranged from 3.050 billion to 3.162 billion bushels.

The survey predicts the USDA will forecast the average yield at 42.0 bushels an acre, 0.4% above last month's estimate. Estimates ranged from 41.0 bushels to 42.9 bushels an acre.

There is still some uncertainty surrounding soybean yields, as generally favorable yield reports from harvests could by offset by a reduction in yields from fields that were nipped by frost in the northern Midwest, said Don Roose, president Iowa-based brokerage U.S. Commodities.

Meanwhile, the government's outlook on the balance between supply and demand is expected to experience some adjustments in relation to the change in 2011-12 production and beginning stocks.

"If U.S. output rises just 22 million bushels, limited adjustments in bean's 2011/12 balance sheet are likely," Jerry Gidel, analyst with North America Risk Management Services, said. Domestically, more dramatic changes in U.S. livestock numbers are needed for soybeans' crush level to change much at this time, and the current strong protein demand from Asia and particularly China isn't likely to abate, so not making further cuts in U.S. exports until South America's prospects are better known seems a more prudent approach, he added.

As for the end of the crop year, the average of 20 analysts' estimates pegged inventories as of Aug. 31, 2012 at 181 million bushels, up from the September forecast of 165 million bushels. The estimates ranged from 153 million to 255 million bushels, reflecting uncertainty about 2011 production.

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bad article 10/11/2011 @ 10:05pm "analysts surveyed" sounds like the "sources say" format of used on most news agencies. What does that quote from Jerry Gidel mean?? We just needed to publish something today, I guess.

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lower beans 10/10/2011 @ 10:12pm i gotta agree with the lack of experts even really considering the frost they blew it off so they could knock our prices down,i harvested 680 acres of beans and they averaged 34.7 my best field did 41 so wow what a crop.

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Lower soybean yield 10/10/2011 @ 9:12pm The frost that "did very little damage" sure was a different story when harvesting. The yield monitor dropped by over 10 bushel in the frosted areas and down to under 15 bu in the areas of sudden death and frost. The whole area (West Central Iowa) from Hwy 59 west has a lot of 35 to 45 bu soybeans when usual yields are over 50. On my farms, the yields are down from last year from 14 bu on my best producing farm and up to 19 bu less on the others. Maybe the 'experts' should reevaluate the nonevent September frost...

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Beans not up to Par 10/10/2011 @ 8:10pm I know our beans in Northwest Iowa are not what we are use to. We are averaging around 50 bu, when most of us are use to 60. I have heard of a lot of 45's. In the last 10 years, this will be the worst bean crop I have grown. Guess I'm in the wrong part of the country this year. Most of these beans were treated with fungicide, insectide, and some were foliar fed We had some fields that were frosted in the low areas, and you could visually see where they were frosted. There was a 5-10 bushel difference between frosted and unfrosted beans.

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Beans not up to Par 10/10/2011 @ 8:10pm I know our beans in Northwest Iowa are not what we are use to. We are averaging around 50 bu, when most of us are use to 60. I have heard of a lot of 45's. In the last 10 years, this will be the worst bean crop I have grown. Guess I'm in the wrong part of the country this year. Most of these beans were treated with fungicide, insectide, and some were foliar fed We had some fields that were frosted in the low areas, and you could visually see where they were frosted. There was a 5-10 bushel difference between frosted and unfrosted beans.

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