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USDA releases bearish corn data

05/10/2013 @ 10:55am

DES MOINES, Iowa (Agriculture.com)--The U.S. 2013 corn yield is seen as falling, due to the inclement spring planting weather, the USDA indicated in its monthly report Friday. However, the total production remained the same. As a result, the CME Group futures market is reacting negatively.

Following the release of the USDA data, the corn market traded 22 cents lower, soybeans 12 cents lower.

Because the report showed few changes, the market views it as negative, one analyst says.  

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice-president, says the USDA Report is neutral.

"I think the report itself is sharply neutral, the market reaction is more exciting," he says. The reports are basically neutral when compared to expectations.  None of the estimates are that far from trade average guesses.  I have no problem with these numbers."

Scoville adds, "I think the selling in today's market is kind of buy the rumor and sell the fact in wheat and old crop corn and beans.  New crop corn and beans finding selling on the news that USDA agrees with trade ideas that we can have big crops and carryout next year."  

The markets will put some lows in today or next week, he says. "After all, we still have to plant and grow.  But, weather next week looks to get a lot better and upside might be pretty limited too," Scoville says.

PRODUCTION
In its May Production, Supply/Demand Reports, the USDA pegged the U.S. 2013 corn yield estimate at 158 bushels per acre vs. its previous estimate of 163 bu./acre released in February. 

For corn, the USDA estimates the 2013 U.S. corn production at (14.14 billion bushels, compared to its previous estimate of 14.3 billion bushels. The U.S. average corn yield is estimated at 158 bu./acre vs. its previous estimate of 163 bu./acre.

The USDA sees the U.S. 2013 soybean production at 3.39 billion bushels and a yield at 44.5 bu./acre, unchanged from its last estimate in February.

For U.S. wheat production, the USD estimates the crop at 2.057 billion bushel vs. the average analysts estimate of 2.059 bill. bushels.

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