USDA releases bearish data
DES MOINES, Iowa (Agriculture.com)--The USDA released bearish corn, soybean, and wheat market data Wednesday. In its June Crop Production Report, the USDA increased stockpiles for corn and wheat, while leaving soybean estimate unchanged.
As a result, the CME Group corn, soybean, and wheat markets initially reacted negatively to today's report.
Peter Meyer, PIRA Energy Group senior director of Agricultural Commodities, says the big surprise of the report is the fact that the government didn't lower U.S. corn acres.
"I would have thought they (USDA) would have cut a million or 1.5 million corn acres, due to the poor planting season. I mean, where I stand at the moment, I only have figured 93.6 million planted, 86.1 million harvested acres, an expected yield of 151 bushels per acre. So, I'm at a 13.0 billion-bushel corn crop. By making few changes, the government is trying to hold this crop at 14.0 billion bushels," Meyer says.
For U.S. corn production, the USDA estimates the farmers planted 97.3 million acres vs. its previous estimate of 97.3 million. The USDA estimated the U.S. 2013 corn yield at 156.50 bushels per acre vs. its latest estimate of 158.0 bushels per acre.
For soybeans, the USDA pegged the U.S. 2013 planted acreage at 77.1 million vs. its previous forecast of 77.1 million acres. Also, the USDA sees the U.S. 2013 average soybean yield at 44.5 bushels per acre vs. its previous estimate at 44.5 bushels per acre.
The USDA sees U.S. corn stocks, as of August 31, 2014, the end of the marketing year that will begin with this fall's harvest -- will total 1.949 billion bushels, vs. the USDA's forecast last month of 2.004 billion bushels.
For the 2012-13 marketing year, the USDA estimates U.S. corn stocks at 769 million bushels vs. its May estimate of 759 million bushels and the average analysts' estimate of 748 million.
For soybeans, USDA sees domestic stocks at the end of the 2013-14 marketing year to total 265 million bushels vs. its May estimate of 265 million and the average analysts estimate of 273 million bushels. For 2012-13, the USDA estimates U.S. stocks at 125 million bushels vs. the average analysts' estimate of 125 million and the USDA's May estimate of 125 million bushels.
In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. 2013-14 wheat stocks at 659 million bushels vs. its May forecast of 670 million bushels and the average analysts' estimate of 634 million. For 2012-13 marketing year, the USDA sees domestic stocks at 746 million bushels vs. its May estimate of 731 million and the average analysts' estimate of 734 million bushels.