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USDA releases bullish soybean data

05/09/2012 @ 3:36pm

DES MOINES, Iowa (Agriculture.com)--The USDA released bullish soybean data and bearish corn, wheat estimates Thursday.

In its May Supply/Demand and World Production Reports, the USDA lowered South America's soybean output and raised U.S. soybean exports while lowering U.S. soybean carryout estimates. The 2011-12 corn ending stocks number has some traders thinking limit down trading for corn prices Thursday.

Early Calls for corn are the daily 30 cent limit down, and wheat to follow. Soybeans are called 'limit' up or 30-50 cents higher.


Discuss Report and corn, soybean, and wheat prices in Marketing Talk.


On August 31, 2011, the USDA estimates U.S. 2011-12 soybean carryout will equal (210 million bushels, compared to the average trade estimate 221 million bushels and the USDA's April estimate of 250 million. For 2012/2013, the USDA sees U.S. soybean carryout at 145 million bushels vs. the average analyst estimate of 170 million bushels.

USDA estimates U.S. 2011-12 corn carryout, on August 31, to equal 851 million bushels, compared to the average analysts estimate of 758 million bushels and the USDA's April estimate of 801 million. For 2012-13, the USDA sees U.S. corn carryout at 1.88 billion bushels vs. the average analyst estimate of 1.704 billion bushels.

For wheat, the USDA sees the U.S. 2011-12 carryout (ending May 30) at 768 million bushels, compared to the average analyst estimate of 781 million bushels and the USDA's April estimate of 793 million bushels. 

PRODUCTION

The U.S. 2012 All wheat production estimate is 2.245 billion bushels, vs. the average estimate of 2.196 billion bushels.

WORLD PRODUCTION

USDA estimates the 2011-12 Argentina corn crop at 21.5 million metric tons compared to the USDA's April estimate of 21.5 mmt. For Brazil, 2011-12 corn output is estimated at 67.0 mmt, compared to the previous estimate of 62.0 mmt.

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