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'Very active' weather continuing
While a nearly stationary upper level low was still producing areas of rain in the eastern Corn Belt early on this Thursday (Michigan in particular), the next big storm system of note was already producing rains across Nebraska and Missouri and it will be that storm that puts most of the central/northern Plains, Midwest, and parts of the Delta into very wet weather through the early part of next week.
That rain is great news for the central Plains (especially in Nebraska where the wheat crop is in the middle of the heading stage) but unfortunately it still looks like the extremely dry areas of far southwestern Kansas southward into the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles will be again getting short-changed (with a lot of places there getting nothing at all through Monday).
Locally heavy rains of over two inches are forecast into the weekend for the western Dakotas and eastern Montana (an area that is already wet after sizable rains last week), as well as the lower Missouri River Valley southward into the Ozarks.
Very active weather looks to continue into the 6-10 day time frame as well, with another sizable storm taking shape for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame of next week. Again I think that storm does not do very well in the far southwestern Plains, but should be more than enough to put the rest of the Plains and the Corn Belt in above- normal rainfall for the 6-10 day period. Basically we are going to be shutting down fieldwork operations (for areas that are going right now) across the Midwest by early Saturday, and the way that the forecast shapes up it is going to be a while before we really get things rolling again. That is an especially alarming forecast for Ohio, where 93 percent of the corn was not planted as of this past Sunday, very little will get done this week, and very little will get done next week. I would fully expect that there will still be at least 80 percent of the Ohio corn crop left to put in the ground by the time we get to the week ending May 29, and significant amounts will still need to be planted at that time in states such as Michigan, Indiana, and the Dakotas. There is also likely to be big amounts of spring wheat to be planted at that time as well given wetness in especially western parts of the Northern Plains coming up.