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Warm weather back in the forecast
Temperatures were a little warmer than expected overnight in North Dakota, but I do not think that means that the Midwest is under less of a freeze threat for tomorrow morning. It was cloud cover that kept North Dakota a bit warmer than expected overnight; much of the state was still cloudy at midnight and southern parts of the state were still under a lot of cloudiness late during the night. Where it cleared though, it was just as cold as expected...if not colder. Williston made 27 degrees overnight (I was expecting 26 there) but it was colder than I thought it would get just to the north on the Canadian prairies (where it was clear all night) with several spots in southern Saskatchewan getting all the way down into the 21-25 degree range for low temperatures.
The high pressure responsible for that cold in Canada will move into the Midwest tonight and be centered over northwestern Iowa/southwestern Minnesota by tomorrow morning. There is a lot of cloud cover and some rain in the Midwest right now, but the placement of that high should quickly clear skies tonight.
Like yesterday, I will again look for lows of 32 degrees or lower for the eastern Dakotas, the northern one-quarter of Iowa, far western Wisconsin, and all of Minnesota for tomorrow morning. All of that area is under at least a frost advisory with much of the area under an outright freeze warning. A few spots in Wisconsin and Michigan may reach 32 degrees or lower on Friday morning, but overall tomorrow will clearly be our coldest period to watch.
Much warmer weather is forecast for next week; September 22-25 is looking to be an exceptionally warm period once again. Rains started to fall overnight in parts of the hard-red winter wheat belt (a nice rain at Liberal of about 0.70") and there will be rain chances scattered around that area into early next week Eventually the bulk of the hard-red belt will get over 0.75" and some spots will get close to two inches. In no way those is this the start of an overall wet weather pattern though, with dry weather arriving next Wednesday likely again starting an extended period of dry weather for that area.