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Weather focus turning south

10/01/2012 @ 9:00am

With the calendar turning to October today, and with the U.S. corn and soybean harvests progressing so rapidly (completely dry weather last week in the Corn Belt along and to the north of Interstate 80 should mean a huge increase in national corn and soybean harvest progress numbers on this afternoon's report), more and more interest in the corn and soybean markets is turning to weather in South America.

Most notable about Argentine weather in recent months is heavy amounts of rain that fell in southern parts of that country in August; parts of the state of Buenos Aires had more than four times their normal rainfall in that period. Most believe that those rains did not do much damage to the winter wheat crop grown in that area, and no other crops had yet been planted. What that rain probably did overall was boost Argentine soil moisture levels ahead of corn planting that got started last month (and continues into November; soybean planting gets started in November).

It has been cold in Argentina as of late with lows in a lot of the heart of that country dropping below freezing last week. It will still be chilly coming up but clearly the worst of the cold is well behind us. Regular (though not heavy) rains for the next ten days should create favorable conditions for continued corn planting and for a winter wheat crop that is in the heading stage.

In Brazil, the big story there for the next ten days will be heavy amounts of rainfall in the south, while the north is hot and dry. Already during the overnight hours we saw several spots in Rio Grande do Sul with rainfall amounts of more than an inch, but there is a lot more where that came from. Central and southern parts of Rio Grande do Sul may see additional 3-5+ inch rains through Friday and quite possibly may see similar amounts in the 6-10 day period. While that is occurring, the next ten days will feature little or no rain for central/eastern Mato Grosso, Goias, Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais and Bahia.

Those areas got enough rain during the last 10 days of September for soybean planting to get underway, but upcoming dryness (and heat; 100 degree temperatures will be common) is not what is wanted. Rains should return to those areas though in the 11-15 day period.


Freese-Notis Weather, Inc. Des Moines, Iowa Copyright 2012 - All Rights Reserved

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