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'Wet and Soggy Start' to the Week for the Midwest
As we begin your Monday morning, the western Midwest is off to a wet and soggy start. Over the last 24 hours, rainfall totals have reached 1 to 2 inches across east/central Nebraska eastward into much of central and western Iowa. Widespread 0.5- to 1.0-inch amounts occurred across central and especially southern Minnesota and also northern Indiana into western Ohio.
Showers and thunderstorms this morning are focused along a warm front and ahead of an approaching cold front across the state of Iowa. Over the next 24 hours, showers and thunderstorms will move eastward through the eastern half of Iowa into Illinois, Missouri, central/eastern Oklahoma, and into a good portion of central and eastern Texas. Widely scattered showers and storms will also develop well ahead of the approaching frontal boundary across the Ohio Valley.
Tomorrow afternoon, more widespread showers and storms will move into the Ohio Valley and into the Delta region. Wednesday into Friday rain chances will linger across portions of the Midest, especially central and eastern areas. Rainfall totals over the next five days are forecast to reach 0.5 to 1.0 inch across the western Corn Belt with 1 to 2 inches across eastern areas. Cooler-than-normal temperatures slowly spreading east this week will slow the evaporation and drying process, which should result in considerable planting delays across the Midwest. Temperatures may not reach normal levels (60s and 70s) until late this weekend into early next week.
Farther south and west, temperatures tomorrow morning will dip near to below freezing across portions of the western High Plains, including extreme northwest Kansas, western Nebraska, and extreme southwest South Dakota. A more substantial freeze threat may wait until Friday morning where the latest European model has 32°F. and lower temperatures as far south as extreme northern Kansas, with widespread 28°F. to 32°F. temps across northern Nebraska into the central and eastern Dakotas.
As we approach the weekend any freeze potential will quickly subside, with a warmer pattern setting up for much of the U.S. as upper-level ridging builds back into the region. With heaviest rains for the six- to 10-day currently expected to stay north and west of most of the Delta and Corn Belt, planting conditions may improve in this time frame with an increase in fieldwork productivity.
Even further out, the 11- to 15-day may promise more rains for portions of the southern Plains, although confidence is low this far out in the forecast.
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