The U.S. Department of Agriculture is expected to report that fewer cattle were sent to U.S. feedlots in March compared with a year ago as fresh stockings for the beef-industry pipeline begin to fall behind last year's surge tied to severe drought conditions in the south.
The USDA will release the data in its monthly cattle-on-feed report, due out Friday at 3 p.m. EDT (1900 GMT).
A majority of brokers and analysts expect the federal data to show sharp slowing in the number of placements, or young cattle sold to feedlots for fattening. The USDA is expected to report 1.77 million head of young cattle, known as feeders, were placed last month, according to the average prediction of 11 analysts and traders in a Dow Jones Newswires survey. If the average is correct, the number of cattle added last month would be 7.7% below the same month a year ago.
Analysts expect lower year-over-year placements to be the latest evidence of the massive contraction in the U.S. cattle herd that's taken place over the last 18 months as ranchers in the southern plains have faced the worst drought in history. After rushing stressed animals off parched pastures for many consecutive quarters, they're now expected to have fewer remaining animals to stock the pipeline for steaks and roasts.
A recent tumble in beef prices, accompanied by financial stress at the nation's beef processors, is also expected to have translated to slower buying interest among feedlots, who fear paying high prices for young animals only to sell them below cost later this year should demand for beef not rebound. An associated drop in cattle futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange also signaled slower coming demand. Spot cattle contracts, or the soonest-expiring futures, lost more than 7 cents a pound, or nearly 6%, during the month of March.
In the Dow Jones survey, analysts pegged the number of cattle exiting feedlots for slaughter, known as marketings, at 1.88 million head for March, or 5.5% below the same month a year ago and even with the five-year average. Slowing meat production this year at slaughterhouses is expected to lead to the year-over-year drop in marketings.
Cattle processors, who buy fattened animals and turn them into meat, felt some of the worst pain from falling beef prices, which failed to cover their high costs for cattle. In response, they cut production to limit costs, and the knock-on effect could be higher inventories.
"Early 2012 has been marked by substantial curbs in packer operations due to persistently large losses on each animal processed," said Dan Vaught, president of Vaught Futures Insights. He expects marketings, as a result, to be well below last year. This year's March calendar also included one less work day than last year, which will likely deepen the decline.
Fewer cattle exiting feedlots would likely translate to higher numbers of cattle remaining on feedlots.
Analysts on average estimated there were a total of 11.48 million head of cattle in U.S. feedlots on April 1, which would be 2% above the level from a year ago and 1.6% above the five-year average.








