Federal officials are expected to report a modest rise in the size of the nation's swine herd and signal further expansion next year, driven by record prices this year and a profitable outlook for 2012.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its quarterly hogs and pigs inventory report Friday at 1 p.m. EST (1800 GMT), two hours earlier than normal because of the upcoming Christmas holiday.

The total size of the U.S. hog and pig herd as of Dec. 1 was 65.769 million head, an increase of 1.3% from a year earlier, according to the average prediction of nine analysts in a Dow Jones Newswires survey.

The survey results are 0.4% above the five-year average of 65.525 million head. Analysts' estimates ranged from even to 2.0% above last year's inventory.

The USDA report also should signal further supply increases for the year ahead. Analysts predict farrowing intentions, or expected births, for December to February and March to May up 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively, from a year earlier.

Increasing export demand drove the record prices this year and strong outlook for next year. At the same time, domestic demand has remained steady even as prices have climbed.

A higher number of births fueled expectations for a modest rise in the herd size. Analysts forecast the pig crop born from September to November was 1.6% larger than last year. They expect to see increased productivity by sows, or adult female swine, forecasting a 1.6% rise from a year earlier to nearly 10.05 pigs a litter.

The USDA is seen reporting farrowings, or successful pregnancies, during the last three months near flat compared with a year earlier. Hot and humid weather conditions in key hog-producing states such as Iowa and Minnesota during the summer likely reduced conception rates, analysts said.

A likely increase in the number of animals kept for breeding fueled expectations for rising supplies in the year ahead. The average prediction of analysts puts the U.S. inventory of sows and gilts kept for breeding at 100.8% of a year earlier, with estimates ranging from 100.4% to 101%.

-By Curt Thacker, Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5178; curt.thacker@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 21, 2011 14:29 ET (19:29 GMT)