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3 Big Things Today, October 11

Soybeans, Corn Little Changed Overnight; Record October Rain Already Recorded in Midwest

1. Soybeans, Corn Little Changed Overnight on Delayed Harvest, Strong Yields

Soybeans and corn were little changed overnight as investors continue to weigh the delayed harvest against strong yields. Wheat was slightly lower.

So far this season, yield reports have been stronger than expected, though there have been significant delays in planting.

The corn harvest is only 22% complete, well behind the prior five-year average of 37% for this time of year, the USDA said in a report on Tuesday. Soybeans are faring better with 36% collected, but that’s still behind the normal pace of 43%, according to the government.

Brazil weather also is being closely watched. It’s been dry in the South American country, though some rainfall is in the long-term forecast.

Prices are also little changed, as traders square positions ahead of tomorrow’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) Report.

Analysts thus far are expecting the government to increase its production and yield estimates, though the agency has been known to have some surprises in store.

Soybean futures for November delivery fell ¾¢ to $9.65¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal lost 40¢ to $315.80 a short ton, and soy oil was unchanged at 33.11¢ a pound.

Corn futures for December delivery declined a penny to $3.47¼ a bushel overnight.

Wheat for December delivery fell 2¢ to $4.33¼ a bushel in Chicago. Kansas City futures lost 3¼¢ to $4.28 a bushel.

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2. Record, Near-Record October Rainfall Already Seen in Parts of Iowa, Minnesota

After the first nine days of October, several towns in the Midwest had seen record or near-record rainfall, according to the National Weather Service.

Sioux City, Iowa, and Worthington, Minnesota, had 6.47 inches and 6.57 inches, respectively, of rain in the first nine days of October, both setting records for the entirety of the month, the NWS’s Sioux Falls office said.

The prior record set in Sioux City was 5.7 inches in October 2009, while Worthington’s prior record for the entire month was set in 1977, according to the government.

Several towns in Iowa, including Rock Valley, Alton, and Sheldon, all had more than 4.5 inches of rain through October 9, the most for the first nine days of the month on record.

Minnesota towns Lake Wilson and Windom had 4.43 inches and 4.92 inches so far, also tops for the first few days of October and the fourth most for the month in history, the NWS said.

While the next couple of days might be dry in the Midwest, another 3 inches of rain are expected Saturday and Sunday in some parts of the Corn Belt.

That will likely put farmers hoping to harvest their crops further behind. Corn growers were 22% finished with the harvest as of Sunday, down from the prior five-year average of 37%.

Soybeans were 36% harvested as of October 8, below the average of 43% for this time of year, according to the USDA.

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3. Rainfall Likely to Further Slow Harvest Today Before Dry Weather Thursday, Friday

Rainfall will likely further slow the harvest in the Midwest today before giving way to drier weather Thursday and Friday, according to forecasters.

Commodity Weather Group said the corn and bean harvest in the Midwest and wheat seeding in the Southern Plains will benefit from drier weather in the next two days, but a storm will push through during the weekend, putting farmers further behind.

Next week is expected to be dry, however, and there’s a below-average chance of precipitation in the 16- to 30-day outlook, as well, which should help speed the harvest, CWG said.

Freezing weather, meanwhile, has moved east into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa and down into central Kansas, according to the National Weather Service. A freeze warning is in effect for much of the region with temperatures in the mid-20 to low-30s.

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