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3 Big Things Today, September 26

Soybeans, Corn Little Changed Overnight; Harvest Still Behind Average as Rain Falls.

1. Soybean, Corn Futures Little Changed as More Yield Reports Roll In

Soybeans and corn were little changed as more yield reports come in – and they’re still quite variable.

Reports of poor yields rolled in from Kansas as dry weather during the growing season stunted crops in the state. In parts of southern Illinois and Indiana, however, the weather was wet and warm, which was ideal for corn and soybean growth.

Corn inventories in the marketing year that just ended on August 31 were expected to rise to 2.35 billion bushels from 1.737 billion a year earlier, according to the USDA. Carryout at the end of the current marketing year is expected to be steady at 2.335 billion bushels.  

Soybean stockpiles, meanwhile were seen at 345 million at the end of last month, up from 197 million a year earlier. On August 31, 2018, soybean inventories are seen at 475 million bushels, according to the USDA.

Rising carryout is going to put a lid on prices regardless of what yields do, according to analysts.

Soybeans for November delivery rose ¼¢ to $9.71½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal futures lost 70¢ to $313.60 a short ton, and soy oil gained 0.22¢ to 34.23¢ a pound.

Corn for December delivery fell ½¢ to $3.53¼ a bushel overnight.

Wheat for December delivery gained 1¼¢ to $4.55¼ a bushel in Chicago, while Kansas City futures added ¾¢ to $4.54¾ a bushel.

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2. Corn, Bean Harvests Behind Average as Patchy Rainfall in Areas Keeps Farmers From Fields

Both the corn and soybean harvests are behind schedule as scattered showers hit in several parts of the country last week.

Rainfall was prevalent in a long stretch of land from west Texas all the way north to the Canadian border, pushing through western Kansas, central Nebraska, most of the eastern Dakotas, and much of Minnesota. Pockets of rain in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri last week held up some of the harvest.

Late planting and forced replanting also means growers are leaving crops in the ground to mature before the harvest.   

About 11% of the U.S. corn crop was collected as of Sunday, behind the prior five-year average for this time of year of 17%, according to the USDA.

In Iowa, only 3% of corn was harvested, well behind the 10% that’s normally collected. In Illinois, 11% is in the bin vs. an average of 24% for this time of year.

Only 51% of U.S. corn is mature, behind the average of 64%, the government said.

Soybeans are doing better, but are still not on par with the norm. About 10% was collected as of Sunday, which compares with the average of 12%. In Iowa, 5% is in the bin vs. the five-year average of 8%. Illinois soybean growers are actually ahead of the average at 9% complete.

South Dakota, however, where all the rain fell in the past seven days, is only 4% complete vs. an average of 17% for this time of year, according to the USDA.

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3. Rainfall Likely in Parts of Missouri, Kansas Tuesday as Heat Wave Parks Over Illinois

More rainfall is expected in parts of southern Iowa, northern and central Missouri, and extreme eastern Kansas today.

“Scattered rain showers and an isolated nonsevere thunderstorm are possible over the area this morning as a cold front moves through the region,” the National Weather Service said in a report early Tuesday morning. “Rain could be heavy at times and reduce visibility to less than 2 miles.”

Farther east, the heat wave that gripped much of the Midwest last week has parked over Illinois, pushing temperatures into the 90s. The near-record heat is expected to continue today.

Hurricane Maria will approach the East Coast this week but is expected to move eastward into the open Atlantic Ocean. It won’t make landfall, but it may come close to North Carolina and bring tropical force-speed winds, heavy rain, and a storm surge, the NWS said.

 

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