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3 Big Things Today, September 12

Corn, Soybean Futures Lower Overnight; USDA Expected to Lower Output, Yield in WASDE.

1. Corn, Beans Lower Overnight as U.S. Harvest Kicks Off

Corn and soybean futures were lower in overnight trading as the U.S. harvest begins in earnest.

About 5% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of Sunday, just behind the prior five-year average of 6%, according to the USDA.

Collection hasn’t yet started in Iowa, but growers in Illinois are 2% finished with the harvest. In Indiana, they’re 1% complete, the USDA said in a report yesterday. Texas is furthest along with 58% of its crop in the bin.

About 61% of the crop is in good or excellent condition, unchanged from last week but well below the stellar crop from a year ago when 74% earned top ratings.

For soybeans, the harvest has yet to begin en masse, but 22% of the crop is dropping leaves. That’s just behind the five-year average of 25%, according to the USDA. The crop was 60% good or excellent as of Sunday, down a point from the prior week.

As with corn, ratings are well behind last year when 73% earned top ratings.

Corn futures for December delivery fell 2¼¢ to $3.55¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Soybean futures for November delivery lost 2¼¢ to $9.57¾ a bushel. Soy meal fell 20¢ to $303.40 a short ton, and soy oil futures declined 0.13¢ to 35.02¢ a pound.

Wheat for December delivery fell a penny to $4.33¾ a bushel overnight, while Kansas City futures lost ¾¢ to $4.34 a bushel.

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2. USDA Likely Will Lower Estimates For Corn, Soybean Production in WASDE Report

Another month and another World Agricultural Supply and Demand Economics (WASDE) Report from the USDA is upon us.

Traders and analysts are looking for the USDA to lower its estimate for both the corn and soybean crops in today’s report.

Analysts have pegged corn production at 14.035 billion bushels on yields of 168.2 bushels an acre, down slightly from the USDA’s August estimate of 14.153 billion bushels and yields of 169.5 bushels, according to analysts citing industry forecasts.

Ending stocks for the 2016-2017 marketing year that ended on August 31 likely will be pegged at 2.34 billion bushels, barely lower than the August forecast for 2.37 billion, the analysts said. New-crop inventories are seen at 2.18 billion bushels, down from the prior outlook for 2.273 billion bushels.

Soybeans are a similar story with the average trade estimate at 4.328 billion bushels this month on yields of 48.8 bushels an acre. That’s down from the August USDA estimate of 4.381 billion bushels on yields of 49.4 bushels.

Ending stockpiles in 2016-2017 likely will be reported at 370 million bushels, unchanged from the prior month, while new-crop inventories are pegged at 442 million bushels, down from 475 million a month earlier, the analysts said.

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3. Remnants of Irma Bring Flooding to Parts of Southeast, Winds as Far North as Missouri

The remnants of Hurricane Irma are moving through the southeastern U.S. bringing rain and flooding to many states.

The storm tore through Florida leaving 11 people dead and much of the state under water. Coastal flooding is expected to continue today with waves up to 8 feet tall along the Atlantic shore. Power isn’t expected to be restored in some areas for weeks, according to the White House.

Irma, how a tropical depression, caused flooding in much of Georgia and South Carolina and is moving northwest toward St. Louis. Rainfall is expected in parts of Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky during the next 48 hours, according to weather maps.

Wind advisories are in effect as far north as southern Missouri and southern Illinois for tonight as gusts of up to 45 mph can be expected, according to the National Weather Service.

Elsewhere in the Midwest, the maps look pretty quiet with only slight chances of rainfall in parts of western and north-central Nebraska, the NWS said.

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