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Corn, Soybeans Edge Up Slightly Friday

The U.S. dollar is lower.

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Friday, the CME Group’s farm markets move slightly higher on weather concerns in South America.

At midsession, the December corn futures are 1¢ higher at $3.50, and March futures are 1¢ higher at $3.63.

November soybean futures are 1¼¢ higher at $9.69. January soybean futures are 1½¢ higher at $9.80.

September wheat futures are 3¢ higher at $4.43.

December soy meal futures are $1.50 per short ton higher at $318.40. December soy oil futures are 0.08¢ lower at 32.92¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.42 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 27 points lower.

Dustin Johnson, AgYield’s senior strategist, says that weather outlooks are propping up soybean prices.

“Dryness and above-normal temps in Brazilian forecasts are the main drivers keeping prices supported,” Johnson says. “It is actually surprising to see the market optimism, given the anecdotal yield reports, slow export sales pace, and a bounce from the lows in the U.S. dollar index.”

Johnson adds, “Therefore, the confidence to buy soybeans and hedge it with short corn must be high for the potential South American weather issue. The ratio is approaching 2017 highs again.”

 

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Thursday’s Grain Market Review

On Thursday, the CME Group’s soybean market finished double-digits higher, using strong demand and harvest delays.

At the close, the December corn futures settled 1¼¢ higher at $3.49½. March futures finished 1¼¢ higher at $3.62½.

November soybean futures settled 10¢ higher at $9.68¼, and January soybean futures closed 10¼¢ higher $9.79.

September wheat futures closed 1¼¢ lower at $4.40 3/4.

December soy meal futures closed $5.90 per short ton higher at $316.90. December soy oil futures settled $0.23 lower at 33.00¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.69 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 99 points higher.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says that the rally supposedly is due to renewed potential for Chinese buying. 

“China is on holiday, but supposedly some buying is going on. So that is part of it. But, let’s remember that farmers here are not really selling at harvest, just delivering on contracts. Plus, it is very dry in northern Brazil and too wet in southern Brazil and northern Argentina. I think the U.S. lack of selling and South America weather is at least as important as potential Chinese buying,” Scoville says.

The USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report showed higher corn and soybean meal exports than expected; soybean sales were at the high end of expectations.

  • Corn= 814,000 metric tons  vs. the trade’s expectations of between 350,000 and 750,000 mt.
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  • Soybeans=1.01 million mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 600,000 and 1,200,000 mt.
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  • Wheat= 492,300 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 300,000 and 500,000 mt.
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  • Soybean meal = 340,500 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 100,000 and 200,000 mt. 

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s soybean market closed slightly higher.

At the close, the December corn futures finished 1¾¢ lower at $3.48, while March futures finished 1¢ lower at $3.61½.

November soybean futures finished 3¢ higher at $9.58¼; January soybean futures closed 2¾¢ higher $9.68¾.

September wheat futures finished 5¾¢ lower at $4.42.

December soy meal futures closed 50¢ per short ton lower at $311. December soy oil futures finished 0.44¢ higher at 33.23¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 38¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 24 points higher.

Deanna Hawthorne-Lahre, StatFutures cofounder and trader, says corn and soybean markets remain in the gut slot.

“The big news is that the soybean basis is breaking in the face of big buying by China,” Hawthorne-Lahre says.

Both corn and soybean technical charts look dismal, with December corn contract nearing its 52-week low and the November soybean contract hitting recent week lows.

“They both are sitting right on support. Wheat is in its usual friendly period, as the crop is locked up against the big carries,” she says.

Minneapolis wheat completed a round trip of the big move this summer, as it now falls due to the USDA’s September 29 report estimating the crop production number coming at 416 million bushels.

“Whispers this summer had the spring wheat crop as low as 350 million, so that’s why the USDA dropped the big one on the longs there. It’s gonna a be a long fall,” Hawthorne-Lahre says.

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm markets finished much like they started – mostly lower, with the only buyer interest falling in the wheat market.

At the close, the December corn futures finished 2¢ lower at $3.49¾, and March futures finished 2¢ lower at $3.62¼.

November soybean futures closed 2¢ lower at $9.55¼; January soybean futures ended 1¾¢ lower at $9.66.

September wheat futures closed 3½¢ higher at $4.48.

December soy meal futures settled $2.10 per short ton lower at $311.50. December soy oil futures closed 0.20¢ higher at 32.75¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 16¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 78 points higher.

Jaason Roose, U.S. Commodities grain analyst, says harvest activity is being watched by the trade.

“Grains traded weaker today with harvest pressure, light exports, a strong dollar limiting any rallies, and old-crop supplies still burdensome on all grains,” Roose says.

 

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the CME Group’s farm futures have started the week’s trading under water.

At the close, the December corn futures settled 3¾¢ lower at $3.51½, while March futures closed 3½¢ lower at $3.64¼.

November soybean futures finished 11¢ lower at $9.57¼; January soybean futures finished 10¾¢ lower $9.67¾.

September wheat futures ended 3¾¢ lower at $4.44.

December soy meal futures closed $2.20 per short ton lower at $313.60. December soy oil futures closed 0.30¢ lower at 32.52¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.21 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 134 points higher.

Corey Bratland, Kluis Commodities grain broker, says the markets are feeling harvest pressure.

“Even with parts of the Corn Belt farmers delayed from harvesting due to rain, others are getting out there and rolling. So, you’re seeing the markets react to harvest activity,” Bratland says. “Corn is falling victim to beans being down a dime, and spring wheat is still under the thumb of the negative USDA Report last week.”

On Monday, the USDA announced large, one-time sales for corn and a decent-size order for soybeans.

Private exporters reported to the USDA the follow activity:

  •  Export sales of 597,464 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2017/2018 marketing year
  •  Export sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2017/2018 marketing year

The marketing year for corn and soybeans began September 1.

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