AG MOBILE
FREE E-MAIL NEWSLETTER
Log In
Corn to start Sunday at 6.78, analyst says By: Rich Nelson 03/29/2013 @ 3:12pm
On Thursday, the USDA released the first official 2013 planting numbers <http://www.allendale-inc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/ProspectivePlantings032013.jpg> which came in at 97.282 million ...
All eyes on USDA data By: Rich Nelson 03/22/2013 @ 3:56pm
The bean market put in a volatile round on trading Friday. What looked like fund liquidation pressed the market sharply lower early in the session. When the fund liquidation ended, the market was able to ...
U.S. wheat stocks are not tight By: Rich Nelson 03/08/2013 @ 3:39pm
Wheat finished the day mixed to lower, today. The USDA Supply and Demand numbers were bearish compared to the trade’s expectation. The average trade guess for the report was 704 million bushels for U.S ...
Only hiccups for SA crop-weather By: Rich Nelson 02/22/2013 @ 11:05pm
The old crop/new crop soybean spreading dominated Thursday’s trade action. The old crop beans were supported by continued rumors of China buying U.S. beans. The USDA confirmed the purchase of 130,000 tonnes ...
Reviewing the report By: Rich Nelson 01/11/2013 @ 3:39pm
Corn Commentary Let’s take a moment to review today’s numbers as well as look ahead given our new information. Trade was looking for a slight reduction in production but instead saw a production ...
Corn prices not low enough By: Rich Nelson 12/28/2012 @ 3:28pm
Corn CommentaryDespite the low expectations for exports and the falling price of corn, today’s export report was still disappointing. Today’s sales show that a March corn price down near 700 still is not ...
Wild week for soybeans By: Rich Nelson 12/21/2012 @ 3:03pm
Soybean commentaryThe soybean market ended the week on a positive note as we had a ‘dead cat bounce’ into the weekend. The market broke more than a dollar since hitting the weekly high Sunday night so it ...
'Major dent' in wheat market By: Rich Nelson 12/14/2012 @ 3:50pm
Wheat CommentaryBroker perspective: While the other grains were able to find a bounce today, it was wheat that struggled behind. This market continues to feel the pressure from the recent world export numbers ...
Pork exports to Russia threatened By: Rich Nelson 12/08/2012 @ 7:30am
Leftover selling from Thursday’s poor exports was certainly seen Friday. In combination with that, this corn market finally saw its seasonal drop into the 2nd week of December. After a relatively ...
Funds take profit, markets fall By: Rich Nelson 11/30/2012 @ 3:26pm
Wheat finished lower as end of the month liquidation gripped the markets. Chicago led the way lower today, followed by the KC crop. This leads us to believe that the fund traders were taking profits on their ...
U.S. wheat price competitive? By: Rich Nelson 11/23/2012 @ 12:55pm
Wheat started off on a bullish note with exports coming in at 657,000 tonnes (635,500 old crop + 22,000 new). This was better than trade’s high end expectations of 400,000. A low volume session kept all news ...
Market eyes SA weather and Mo. River By: Rich Nelson 11/16/2012 @ 3:47pm
Closing Soybeans CommentaryBroker Perspective: The soybean market broke hard in the overnight market and made new lows for the move in the day session. Today’s selloff began when Reuters ran a story ...
Soybean production, demand raised By: Rich Nelson 11/09/2012 @ 3:37pm
SoybeansBroker Perspective: The USDA gave the bean bears something to cheer about today as they raised the national bean yield higher than expected. They did give the bulls some hope as they raise demand high ...
Wheat jumps as Ukraine exports fall By: Rich Nelson 10/19/2012 @ 4:02pm
Wheat CommentaryBroker Perspective: Wheat finished higher for the third consecutive day today as feed grains found support on news that the Ukraine is going to run out of exportable wheat midway through ...
Soybean 'Fall low' in sight By: Rich Nelson 10/05/2012 @ 3:32pm
Closing Soybeans CommentaryBroker Perspective: After two exciting days, the soybean market put in what could be best described as a slow day. After trading both sides of unchanged the market ended unchanged on ...
Corn low still undecided By: Rich Nelson 10/01/2012 @ 11:37am
Closing Corn CommentaryBroker Perspective: Today saw a quarterly Grain Stocks report that was quite bullish for corn. Trade thought we had 1.113 billion bushels of corn on hand and today they reported that ...
Corn to follow beans By: Rich Nelson 09/24/2012 @ 9:41am
Closing Corn Commentary Broker Perspective: Through most of the day corn found itself stuck between a bearish bean influence and a bullish wheat influence. Right now the bean market has all the ...
Market eyes world corn exporters By: Rich Nelson 09/14/2012 @ 3:30pm
Closing Corn Commentary Broker Perspective: Early buying was seen in the market. This was thought to come from both Friday profit taking as well as a supportive European story. The story suggested the EU ...
Choppy wheat outlook By: Rich Nelson 08/31/2012 @ 3:37pm
Wheat Commentary Broker Perspective: The wheat market was under pressure today as the results of the big Russian grain meeting ended as expected, with no limiting of exports. After drought slashed the ...
Demand supports soybean prices By: Rich Nelson 08/17/2012 @ 3:54pm
Broker Perspective: Beans finished the day higher as we are continuing to see good demand for beans at these levels. The story for beans is continuing to be weather and demand. We saw no announcements of ...
What's left for the bulls? By: Rich Nelson 08/10/2012 @ 3:49pm
Closing Corn CommentaryBroker Perspective: Today’s Supply/Demand report could be best summed up by calling it neutral to slightly bearish. For new crop carryout, trade was looking for 651 million bushels and ...
Corn comfortably above $8 By: Rich Nelson 07/30/2012 @ 6:18am
To end the week, there were not many changes in weather but many different opinions on yield prospects. During the day, Friday, we saw one estimate of corn yield at 122, another one at 134, and a third ...
One direction for soybeans, up By: Rich Nelson 07/20/2012 @ 4:59pm
Beans finished higher again today as this market has one direction in mind, up. August finished the day 23 3/4 higher at 1757 1/2 and for the week was 1.62 3/4 higher. The November contract was 34 higher at ...
Volatile markets ahead By: Rich Nelson 06/24/2012 @ 7:28pm
The July soybeans traded 4 higher at 1442 1/2 and the November traded 4 1/4 higher at 1375 1/2. We saw no overnight sales announcements Friday for soybeans. Weather is still the driving factor in these ...
Macro factors take center stage By: Rich Nelson 06/16/2012 @ 10:18am
Spreaders were in the soybean market today taking premium out of the July/November spread as we saw the July finish 10 lower at 1386 and the November finish 5 1/4 at 1308 3/4. Deliverable stocks of soybeans at ...
Market eyes USDA data By: Rich Nelson 06/08/2012 @ 3:30pm
July soybeans finished the day 1 cent lower at 1426 and the November contract finished 8 cents lower at 1332. We saw two export sales of soybeans announced at 8 am this morning. Egypt bought 120,000 tonnes of ...
Macros sink corn By: Rich Nelson 06/01/2012 @ 3:21pm
Closing Corn Commentary Broker Perspective: While fund trading remained quiet in corn again today, the spreaders were very active. Before the 9:30 opening there was violent outside market news which ...
Corn, wheat markets face many factors By: Rich Nelson 05/25/2012 @ 3:13pm
Closing Corn Commentary Broker Perspective: Today’s forecast put a little more rain in for mid-next week. Corn prices did not react to a large amount which is likely due to the fact that there will be ...
Wheat traders eye world weather By: Rich Nelson 05/18/2012 @ 3:09pm
Wheat Commentary Broker Perspective: Wheat closed out the week’s trading in the same manner as it traded the whole week, a sharply higher move on fund liquidation. We estimated that the funds have ...
USDA right on yields By: Rich Nelson 05/12/2012 @ 1:07pm
Both old and new crop corn saw high volume selling Friday. New crop corn broke $5 and was below that level for the first time since Dec 17, 2010. Stop shoppers came in and bought the sub $5 corn to ...
Bean market trades rumor By: Rich Nelson 04/20/2012 @ 3:36pm
It was rumor day in the beans. Beans found strength as the market started to talk about Brazil halting exports until August. This is just a rumor and there has been no confirmation that this event has ...
China rules the market news By: Rich Nelson 04/13/2012 @ 3:05pm
China was in the news a few different ways today which suggested corn weakness. First it was yet another day where China came in with bean purchases but didn’t come in with corn buying. Early this ...
Trade can overreact to freeze By: Rich Nelson 04/06/2012 @ 9:48am
To end the week, the corn market saw good support on light volume trade. There are a few good reasons to expect support in this corn. First, we saw good exports Thursday of 1.1 million tonnes, beating trade ...
China buys soy to fill reserves By: Rich Nelson 03/23/2012 @ 4:41pm
Closing Soybeans CommentaryFundamental Support: The soy complex finished the day higher but it was the first week since the beginning of February that the weekly charts were lower. Most of the support came ...
Meat supplies drop By: Rich Nelson 03/12/2012 @ 2:10pm
USDA numbers were not friendly for corn Friday. Trade was looking for a slight reduction of corn carryout but instead the USDA simply left US carryout alone. That carryout translates to a May corn price of 640 ...
Soybean market eyes Argentina By: Rich Nelson 02/24/2012 @ 4:23pm
Closing Soybeans CommentaryFundamental Support: Beans closed higher 9 out of the last 10 sessions. For the week, May beans were up 13 cents and closed strong once again. Volume was light today with the March ...
U.S. holds bean price advantage By: Rich Nelson 02/18/2012 @ 2:51pm
Soybeans traded higher for the session finishing today at 1267 ½ per bushel, which is 9 ¼ cents higher for the day. Good export sales this morning and follow through buying from the China deal were the main ...
Old, new-crop corn charts differ By: Rich Nelson 02/10/2012 @ 3:01pm
Fundamental Support: When you look at the chart showing today’s trade, it looks almost exactly like yesterday. Corn started the day with a bounce only to spend most of the day setting back. March corn did a ...
Crop estimates eyed By: Rich Nelson 02/06/2012 @ 7:45am
Beans saw volatile trade Friday, as jobs numbers were released and outside research agencies announced their South American production estimates. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor statistics released their ...
Balanced 2012 pork demand By: Rich Nelson 01/20/2012 @ 7:00am
Soybeans closed near the session highs Thursday and could be targeting 1200 over the next few sessions. The dollar gave confidence to the bulls and helped push commodities higher. One of the main focuses ...
Fundamental Support: Beans fell to finish the week. It seemed we had follow through selling from yesterday’s USDA numbers. Beans have dropped 75 cents in the last 3 days but finished the week only 38 lower ...
Wheat market eyes Europe By: Rich Nelson 01/09/2012 @ 7:22am
Continued European debt fears, interexchange wheat spreading, and weak export demand pressured the wheat market today. The market is still concerned about the potential of European bank failures and what ...
Corn in review By: Rich Nelson 01/03/2012 @ 12:19pm
To look back on the year, we had major fund investment that was larger than 2008. Corn followed that up by seeing liquidation back down to just about 100,000 contracts based on a floor estimate only to buy it ...
Low $4 corn in 2012? By: Rich Nelson 12/16/2011 @ 3:49pm
There was a good start to the day, as some profit-taking came in, we saw supportive outside markets and there was a surprise sale of corn to Japan. Seeing a sale of corn to Japan is not uncommon but it ...
Wheat is not hard to find By: Rich Nelson 12/10/2011 @ 7:51am
The USDA surprised the market with a bearish report this morning. The government put the U.S. ending stocks at 878 million bushels. This was 50 million bushel increase from last month estimate. The increase in ...
SA weather eyed By: Rich Nelson 12/03/2011 @ 7:18am
Beans finished the week on a strong note. The funds bought another 5,000 contracts and were buyers four out of the five days this week. Beans were able to rally 29 ¼ cents this week. The weekly chart looks ...
More alternative sources than ever By: Rich Nelson 11/18/2011 @ 4:21pm
Closing Corn CommentaryFundamental Support: Today a profit taking bounce could have been expected ahead of the weekend. Instead of seeing that bounce on the opening, it appears that speculators wanted to have ...
Corn falls on acreage number By: Rich Nelson 11/11/2011 @ 3:18pm
Fundamental Support: Corn was unable to shake off the recent bearish fundamentals offered up the last two days. What trade did find was the expected support as soon as December corn fell below 640. Buyers ...
Strong week for corn market By: Rich Nelson 11/04/2011 @ 3:34pm
First thing in the morning, the corn saw its Friday setback as expected. After the first hour of trade, the average estimate on carryout was released; this was enough to push the corn market back up to the ...
A 2012 net acreage increase By: Rich Nelson 10/28/2011 @ 3:22pm
Profit-taking pushed beans lower Friday, after a big rally yesterday. The dollar found some strength and had investors taking some positions off, ahead of the weekend and the end of the month. With ...
A rotten day-Rich Nelson By: Rich Nelson 09/30/2011 @ 8:52pm
Fundamental Support: Nothing short of a tough day here thanks to a surprisingly bearish corn stocks report. USDA’s last estimate was for 920 million bushels of stocks, trade had looked for 962, and our ...
Can't call the 'bottom' By: Rich Nelson 09/23/2011 @ 8:18pm
Wheat closed the week on a positive note. It even ignored selling pressure in the soybean and corn pits. Also the across the board selling in the outside markets that had pressured the market the past few days ...
Demand sinks wheat By: Rich Nelson 09/09/2011 @ 3:47pm
Wheat fell for the fourth day, as demand concerns continue to pressure the markets. The U.S. dollar was stronger today on continued European debt fears. World traders are worried that the financial crisis in ...
Short trading week ahead By: Rich Nelson 09/06/2011 @ 7:30am
Many will ask what changed in corn Friday to cause the rally. To be truthful, the answer really is that nothing changed at all. Thursday was all about funds who were selling on a technical basis ...
Bean weather eyed -Rich Nelson By: Rich Nelson 08/19/2011 @ 3:11pm
Beans found strength to finish out the week. Weather is still the main concern and will be the focus as we move into next week. No major fundamental news was released today. Outside market ...
$7.22 corn price eyed -Rich Nelson By: Rich Nelson 08/15/2011 @ 7:47am
Friday featured what appeared to be light volume trade but actually was moderate to good volume. In the end, corn ended right where it started. This relatively smooth trade gave us time to research USDA ...
This week's revision report eyed By: Rich Nelson 08/08/2011 @ 8:10am
The trade continues to look towards the August 11th report as a possible game changer with yield questions continuing to move the market. Beans have been true to its trading range as 14 proved as good ...
Buying supports corn-Rich Nelson By: Rich Nelson 07/22/2011 @ 3:37pm
Fundamental Support: Instead of a calm day waiting for the forecast, corn found early buying which continued throughout the day. Our noon forecast was spun bearish by some, yet bullish by others. Our take was ...
Wheat follows corn higher-Rich Nelson By: Rich Nelson 07/08/2011 @ 3:07pm
Wheat was able to follow corn today. Its close attachment to corn as a feed substitute has tightened their pricing relationship. Weekly export sales this morning were 16 million bushels (424,200 tonnes). That ...
Optimism denied-Rich Nelson By: Rich Nelson 06/24/2011 @ 4:41pm
Today is Friday. Many were looking for profit-taking from the recent selling. From the first moment of trade, selling was present instead. This time, funds sold despite giving a sign yesterday that they might ...
Buyers to gain confidence-Rich Nelson By: Rich Nelson 06/17/2011 @ 4:04pm
After a week of selling in this corn market, the trade expected some Friday buying to develop. What turned out was some choppy trade where corn started on a positive note, was then pulled down by beans and ...
Corn bulls need fed-Rich Nelson By: Rich Nelson 06/10/2011 @ 3:15pm
The trade was looking for a little profit-taking setback and in the December futures market that is exactly what happened Friday. Now that we have a carryout that suggests 710 new crop price, it is hard ...
Beans were higher all session and farmers continue to wonder why. The eastern Corn Belt has a great opportunity to plant over the next few weeks. Those farmers are ready to plant and will plant as fast as they ...
Cattle placements jump-Rich Nelson By: Rich Nelson 05/23/2011 @ 7:07am
Live Cattle: USDA’s survey of feedlots found placements, the number of new calves and feeders entering feedlots, were 9.9% larger than last year in April. This was above the trade’s expectation of a 4.5% ...
Inflated China talk?-Rich Nelson By: Rich Nelson 05/13/2011 @ 4:40pm
Fundamental Support: Rumors circulated around the corn market yesterday that China had come in and bought 1 million tonnes. The claim was that it was to be split between old and new crop. By this morning, that ...
Rich Nelson: Monday crucial to market By: Rich Nelson 05/08/2011 @ 9:52pm
Corn Fundamental Support: Heavy-selling came from a couple sources Friday. First there was a disappointing profit taking bounce seen Friday. Most were looking for those who had sold all week to buy back ...
Rich Nelson: Wild spring price change By: Rich Nelson 05/02/2011 @ 1:30pm
Corn: What a difference 24 hours can make when the funds are actively trading this market. Rumors yesterday were that European funds were selling out of long positions ahead of a 4 day weekend and today looks ...
Fundamental Support Wheat closed on a high note for the week, closing 14 1/2 higher on the day and 55 1/4 higher for the week. The 55 1/4 cent rally was enough to erase last week’s entire sell off ...
Rich Nelson: Weather has next By: Rich Nelson 04/08/2011 @ 3:39pm
Wheat was sharply higher on a bullish USDA report and general commodity buying driven by a weaker dollar. The Chicago May wheat contract was up 24 1/4 for the day and 38 cents for the week. Funds ...
On-farm ownership falls By: Rich Nelson 04/04/2011 @ 8:44am
Wheat CommentaryFundamental Support:Wheat saw a round of profit-taking today. There was limited new news to affect the wheat pit today. With the corn market not able to hold its limit up move early, the ...
Rich Nelson: Buy rumor, sell fact By: Rich Nelson 03/25/2011 @ 5:43pm
Fundamental Support: Buy the rumor sell the fact was the main issue facing the corn today. After the hard slide lower last week, rumors circulated that China bought over a million tonnes of corn. This was one ...
Rich Nelson: Quake makes the trade nervous By: Rich Nelson 03/11/2011 @ 3:16pm
Wheat Commentary Fundamental Support: The wheat market continued its downward slide today. That makes 5 lower closes in a row for those of you keeping track. For the week, the Chicago wheat ...
Soybean prices surge By: Rich Nelson 03/04/2011 @ 3:30pm
Closing Soybeans CommentaryFundamental Support: A great week was seen with the May contract picking up 44 cents. Delays in the fledgling Brazilian harvest, and problems with Argentine export approvals ...
Rich Nelson: Demand market By: Rich Nelson 02/25/2011 @ 2:57pm
Wheat CommentaryFundamental Support: Wheat rallied on strong exports and on the coat tails of the corn market which traded limit up at one time today. Weekly export sales came in today at 1.115 ...
Rich Nelson: Closing corn and hog commentary By: Rich Nelson 02/07/2011 @ 8:25am
Closing Corn Commentary Fundamental Support: Yesterday the corn longs had taken their profits making this market less subject to the selling seen in other grains today. Japan bought 101,000 tonnes of ...
Rich Nelson: Feed for the bulls By: Rich Nelson 01/17/2011 @ 1:29pm
A strong weekly soybean close should keep the bull fed for now. We are targeting 1450-1475 in the short term on the March contract. Last week, profit-taking was seen early today as traders bought the close for ...
Rich Nelson: USDA Report watch By: Rich Nelson 01/07/2011 @ 4:33pm
The wheat market seems to have fundamental support. The wheat sold off today on index rebalancing and profit taking. The profit taking seems to be coming after the winter holidays instead of the end of the ...
Rich Nelson: Corn to get boost By: Rich Nelson 01/03/2011 @ 10:16am
Going into the end of the year there should be no surprise to see it end the way we have seen it trade for the entire second half, bullish. Market mentality is that funds will move back into the corn, buying ...
Watch out for China -- Rich Nelson By: Rich Nelson 12/10/2010 @ 3:11pm
It is generally thought that the December report does not make much of a wave in the markets. For once, things turned out as expected. USDA raised corn carryout slightly to 832 million bushels. This is 5 ...
Rich Nelson: Little USDA changes seen By: Rich Nelson 12/03/2010 @ 3:22pm
Fundamental Support: Corn this week rose 20 1/2 cents. Big support came from the rocketing wheat market, further talk that China needs to import corn next year, and partially from Argentine corn concerns ...
Rich Nelson: China slows markets By: Rich Nelson 11/12/2010 @ 4:01pm
Fundamental Support: What a difference a day can make, especially when China comes into the picture in a big way. Just into overnight trading, China had announced that they want speculators out of their ...
Though we really laid out some rough corn news this week, the size of today’s decline was a surprise. Instead of new month and new quarter buying here, we saw a ton of speculative longs run for the hills. By ...
Rich Nelson: Highest corn close in two years By: Rich Nelson 09/24/2010 @ 3:54pm
The highest close of the corn uptrend was reached today. It is oddly interesting to note this was the highest close since September 26, 2008. That is almost two years ago. Of course, at that level, the ...
Corn: We are not interested in picking apart why exactly today’s big move was seen. It is simply another day in a massive rally. The primary driver of price remains perceptions of yield falling to 160 ...
Direction: Having pointed out the good news for this week we can also discuss the issues that all traders must turn to when looking at supply/demand tables. Even after plugging in drought problems we are still ...
Rich Nelson: No technical resistance to slow markets By: Rich Nelson 08/01/2010 @ 11:00pm
By Rich NelsonAllendale Inc., Director of ResearchSoybeans: Overnight saw the European wheat market making new contract highs once again. With no change to their forecast, they were off to the races once ...
By Rich NelsonAllendale Inc., Director of ResearchSoybeans: Overnight saw the European wheat market making new contract highs once again. With no change to their forecast, they were off to the races once ...
