ARTICLES BY RICH NELSON
Hogs: Slaughter Numbers Up, Prices Down By: 10/17/2014 @ 4:06pm

There is no way of putting it nicely here, this week was a tough one for hog prices. December futures lost $4. Cash pork lost $9. Weekly kills were as you would expect at this time of year. This week wrapped…

All Eyes On Friday's USDA Report By: 10/06/2014 @ 10:07am

Though this week's markets started higher, soybeans ended the week on a negative note, last week. With the October WASDE report out Friday, it looks like some in the trade are already bracing for a…

What to Do With Unpriced Corn By: 09/19/2014 @ 3:20pm

Soybeans ended the week at prices we have not seen since late June of 2010. For the week, the November bean futures lost another 28 ¼ cents.Market bulls finally received the export sales news they have been…

Allendale: The Bulls Need Disappointing Yield Reports By: 09/12/2014 @ 3:35pm

With temps warming up next week, there isn’t much risk going forward. This limited the amount of short covering needed today. Sellers have been most active in this market recently based on expectations of…

Soybeans Rally, Frost Eyed By: 09/05/2014 @ 3:43pm

Soybeans end the week on a positive note, as frost in the forecast for next weekend has market bears taking money off the table. For the holiday-shortened workweek, the November contract settled 2 3/4 cents…

Soybeans Remain Pressured By: 08/29/2014 @ 3:58pm

A mixed session was seen to finish the week’s trade as the September contract closed higher while the new-crop beans were under pressure and came within 1¼ cents of the contract low. We did see some…

Allendale: Bulls Are Buying Corn By: 08/15/2014 @ 3:10pm

Additional support was seen at the tail end of overnight trade which likely came from an FSA announcement that 1.5 million corn acres would be in prevent plant. That certainly helped out prices early this…

Hog Slaughter: Biggest Week Since 1st of June By: 08/08/2014 @ 3:43pm

We stated before the week got going that a slightly higher slaughter would be seen this week then a big bump up next week. Well this week’s run came in bigger than (slightly higher). Adding in today’s…

Rain = New Crop Futures Under Pressure By: 08/08/2014 @ 3:33pm

Soybeans put in a choppy trade session today as new crop came under pressure while the old crop beans caught a bid. Old crop beans found support from the cash market as it is still trading over $1.00 than the…

New Weather Outlook Bogs Down Soybeans By: 07/18/2014 @ 2:34pm

The soybean market ended the week on a negative note during what was one of the quietest trading days we have seen in a long time. The announced sales of new-crop beans gave the market some support early, but…

Cattle Close at Highest Value for Rally By: 07/03/2014 @ 1:22pm

The cash cattle parade continued today with Colorado moving numbers at $159. This extended yesterday’s $157 to $158 trade. August futures broke their $153 resistance and closed at the highest value yet for…

Bean Markets Begin & End on a Weak Note By: 07/03/2014 @ 1:17pm

The bean market ended the holiday shortened trade week like it began, on a weak note as the market was under pressure for most of the session. Many in the trade thought that we could see some end of the week…

Weather, Spread Trading Rule Markets By: 06/08/2014 @ 8:02am

The unwinding of the old crop/new crop bull spreads again dominated the last day of the week’s trading. The  Goldman Roll kicked off Friday that added pressure to the trade. The first high pressure…

Market Eyes Monday's Planting Progress Report By: 05/11/2014 @ 4:40pm

Friday's report turned out slightly bullish for old crop compared to expectations and also slightly bearish for new crop. At first, it was tough to tell which side was going to win out. But shortly after…

Bean Market Catches Bid By: 04/27/2014 @ 1:11pm

The bean market caught a bid to close the week out on a strong note. News that China was canceling the auction of 3 mmt of beans out of their reserves gave the market a boost overnight and that carried through…

Soybeans Volatile, Hog Market Sinks By: 04/04/2014 @ 9:38pm

The bean market ended a volatile week of trading on a quiet note, with liquidation of the bull spreads the dominating feature of the trade. The May/July spread narrowed 2 ¼ cents, and the July/Nov…

Hog Report Seen as Bearish for Monday's Market By: 03/28/2014 @ 4:32pm

We thought our, and the rest of the trade’s prereport expectations were conservative. USDA took that to a whole new level this afternoon. The total hog herd was only 3.3% less than last year as of March 1…

Wheat Continues to Offer Bullish Corn Influence By: 03/14/2014 @ 4:00pm

Corn CommentaryIt was another day of low volume trade today. That suggests that funds were not present again making this two days in a row they have sat on the sidelines. A lack of fund buying two days in a…

Ukraine's unrest pushes up corn prices By: 02/28/2014 @ 3:31pm

Corn had a wild ride today as the media controlled the markets. Shortly after the open we saw corn move lower, which after yesterday’s price action made sense.  The rest of the day saw the market turn…

Buyers find U.S. corn a bargain By: 12/27/2013 @ 4:22pm

This week’s export sales report was delayed a day and came in huge this morning for corn. Trade had expected sales of 550K to 750K, and instead sales of 1988K were seen! That is more than double the high-end…

Soybeans race to 2013 finish line By: 12/20/2013 @ 4:49pm

Beans ended the last full trading week of the year on a positive note, settling 13 cents higher for the week.  Argentina weather continues to be the driving factor for the move higher. The forecast is for…

Market prepares for USDA Report Tuesday By: 12/06/2013 @ 3:40pm

Two-sided, low volume trade dominated the day today. Once again, the underlying news remains slightly to the bearish side, but the trade is looking for a slightly bullish report on Tuesday which is keeping…

No news is negative for corn By: 11/23/2013 @ 12:32pm

Once again a lack of news resulted in very small changes in corn price today. As has been the pattern over the last 3 sessions, the corn market did continue the higher highs and lows to keep the very slow…

Bullish numbers, lower soybean prices By: 11/01/2013 @ 3:32pm

For the second day in a row, beans retreated following very bullish export numbers.Informa released its estimates that offered no support whatsoever. They raised the yield from 41.7 to 43.3 and production from…

Trade lacks fresh news By: 10/25/2013 @ 3:26pm

Corn traders have now had the entire week to get positioned where they want to be going into Monday’s report, and the trade today suggested that they are happy right here. More light profit-taking…

Corn bears are circling By: 10/11/2013 @ 2:35pm

From early this morning, the corn market has felt pressure from yesterday’s EPA announcement lowering its renewable biofuel blending mandates next year. Early numbers being looked at suggest that…

Corn market waits for Report to pass By: 09/27/2013 @ 3:20pm

Corn traders have now had the entire week to get positioned where they want to be going into Monday’s report. And the trade today suggested that they are happy right here. More light profit-taking…

Wide trading ranges to continue By: 09/20/2013 @ 3:47pm

The soybean market closed at the lowest price in four weeks, after a massive round of risk-off trading pressured the grains, metals, and energy complex today. It looks like some market participants are moving…

Report questions remain for corn and soybeans By: 09/13/2013 @ 3:19pm

On Friday, the soybean market was hit by some profit-taking as the market bulls booked profits after yesterday’s run-up. There was some disappointment that the November contract was unable to take out…

Lean hog commentary By: 08/12/2013 @ 3:54pm

Hog futures were unable to hold those strong price gains made in the first three days of the week. The dominant contract, October, only closed up $1.02 (December +$1.25), and the Zilmax issue for the cattle…

Soybean commentary By: 08/12/2013 @ 3:35pm

The bean market saw a bout of pre-report/end of the week selling today. It may be hard to believe, but for the week November beans settled ¾ cents higher. On Monday, the USDA will be releasing its updated…

August soybean prices to lead the way By: 07/15/2013 @ 10:06am

The July bean contract went off the board at noon today. The last trade was down 27 cents at 1574 1/4. July meal remained strong into the close with the last trade at 10 dollars higher $536 a ton. November…

Updated WASDE numbers coming By: 07/08/2013 @ 7:07am

As we wrap up the holiday shortened trading week, the bean market keeps the general theme that we saw all week. The July contracts traded in the positive all session, Friday, on a strong cash market, while the…

Long-term soybean bearishness By: 06/23/2013 @ 9:36pm

The bean market ended the week on a negative note as last week’s sell-off continued. For the week, the new-crop beans ended 24¾ lower and 37¼ cents off the week's high. The July soybeans settled the…

Monday's soy crush data eyed By: 06/14/2013 @ 9:51pm

The bean market finishes the week on a mixed note, as bull spreads dominated the markets action today. This activity kept the old-crop contracts in the green, while pressing the new crop into the red…

Market eyes Monday's planting number By: 06/09/2013 @ 9:41pm

Overnight and morning maps put more rain Friday into all three forecast maps, keeping conditions wet from day 1 out to day 15. This offered very good support to the corn market once again today. While the noon…

Soybean plantings to lag, analyst says By: 06/01/2013 @ 3:24pm

The beans finished the week higher, but off the session highs, as a bit of profit taking took some of the days gains away. For the holiday shortened week, the July beans rallied 33.75 cents, while the new-crop…

Traders 'bull' spread soybeans By: 05/17/2013 @ 3:09pm

New news to trade was lacking today, but that didn’t stop the bean market bulls from buying. The July beans finish the week on a strong note as the July contract took out the 200-day moving average and had a…

As expected, but big USDA numbers By: 05/10/2013 @ 2:43pm

Friday’s USDA/WASDE corn report  <http://www.allendale-inc.com/premium-content/am-market-movers/usda-report-data/> came in slightly more bearish than expected for the old crop and moderately more…

Corn to start Sunday at 6.78, analyst says By: 03/29/2013 @ 3:12pm

On Thursday, the USDA released the first official 2013 planting numbers <http://www.allendale-inc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/ProspectivePlantings032013.jpg>  which came in at 97.282 million…

All eyes on USDA data By: 03/22/2013 @ 3:56pm

The bean market put in a volatile round on trading Friday. What looked like fund liquidation pressed the market sharply lower early in the session. When the fund liquidation ended, the market was able to…

U.S. wheat stocks are not tight By: 03/08/2013 @ 3:39pm

Wheat finished the day mixed to lower, today. The USDA Supply and Demand numbers were bearish compared to the trade’s expectation. The average trade guess for the report was 704 million bushels for U.S…

Only hiccups for SA crop-weather By: 02/22/2013 @ 11:05pm

The old crop/new crop soybean spreading dominated Thursday’s trade action. The old crop beans were supported by continued rumors of China buying U.S. beans. The USDA confirmed the purchase of 130,000 tonnes…

Reviewing the report By: 01/11/2013 @ 3:39pm

Corn Commentary Let’s take a moment to review today’s numbers as well as look ahead given our new information. Trade was looking for a slight reduction in production but instead saw a production…

Corn prices not low enough By: 12/28/2012 @ 3:28pm

Corn CommentaryDespite the low expectations for exports and the falling price of corn, today’s export report was still disappointing. Today’s sales show that a March corn price down near 700 still is not…

Wild week for soybeans By: 12/21/2012 @ 3:03pm

Soybean commentaryThe soybean market ended the week on a positive note as we had a ‘dead cat bounce’ into the weekend. The market broke more than a dollar since hitting the weekly high Sunday night so it…

'Major dent' in wheat market By: 12/14/2012 @ 3:50pm

Wheat CommentaryBroker perspective: While the other grains were able to find a bounce today, it was wheat that struggled behind. This market continues to feel the pressure from the recent world export numbers…

Pork exports to Russia threatened By: 12/08/2012 @ 7:30am

Leftover selling from Thursday’s poor exports was certainly seen Friday. In combination with that, this corn market finally saw its seasonal drop into the 2nd week of December.  After a relatively…

Funds take profit, markets fall By: 11/30/2012 @ 3:26pm

Wheat finished lower as end of the month liquidation gripped the markets. Chicago led the way lower today, followed by the KC crop. This leads us to believe that the fund traders were taking profits on their…

U.S. wheat price competitive? By: 11/23/2012 @ 12:55pm

Wheat started off on a bullish note with exports coming in at 657,000 tonnes (635,500 old crop + 22,000 new). This was better than trade’s high end expectations of 400,000. A low volume session kept all news…

Market eyes SA weather and Mo. River By: 11/16/2012 @ 3:47pm

Closing Soybeans CommentaryBroker Perspective: The soybean market broke hard in the overnight market and made new lows for the move in the day session. Today’s selloff began when Reuters ran a story…

Soybean production, demand raised By: 11/09/2012 @ 3:37pm

SoybeansBroker Perspective: The USDA gave the bean bears something to cheer about today as they raised the national bean yield higher than expected. They did give the bulls some hope as they raise demand high…

Wheat jumps as Ukraine exports fall By: 10/19/2012 @ 4:02pm

Wheat CommentaryBroker Perspective: Wheat finished higher for the third consecutive day today as feed grains found support on news that the Ukraine is going to run out of exportable wheat midway through…

Soybean 'Fall low' in sight By: 10/05/2012 @ 3:32pm

Closing Soybeans CommentaryBroker Perspective: After two exciting days, the soybean market put in what could be best described as a slow day. After trading both sides of unchanged the market ended unchanged on…

Corn low still undecided By: 10/01/2012 @ 11:37am

Closing Corn CommentaryBroker Perspective: Today saw a quarterly Grain Stocks report that was quite bullish for corn. Trade thought we had 1.113 billion bushels of corn on hand and today they reported that…

Corn to follow beans By: 09/24/2012 @ 9:41am

Closing Corn Commentary Broker Perspective: Through most of the day corn found itself stuck between a bearish bean influence and a bullish wheat influence. Right now the bean market has all the…

Market eyes world corn exporters By: 09/14/2012 @ 3:30pm

Closing Corn Commentary Broker Perspective: Early buying was seen in the market. This was thought to come from both Friday profit taking as well as a supportive European story. The story suggested the EU…

Choppy wheat outlook By: 08/31/2012 @ 3:37pm

Wheat Commentary Broker Perspective: The wheat market was under pressure today as the results of the big Russian grain meeting ended as expected, with no limiting of exports. After drought slashed the…

Demand supports soybean prices By: 08/17/2012 @ 3:54pm

Broker Perspective: Beans finished the day higher as we are continuing to see good demand for beans at these levels. The story for beans is continuing to be weather and demand. We saw no announcements of…

What's left for the bulls? By: 08/10/2012 @ 3:49pm

Closing Corn CommentaryBroker Perspective: Today’s Supply/Demand report could be best summed up by calling it neutral to slightly bearish. For new crop carryout, trade was looking for 651 million bushels and…

Corn comfortably above $8 By: 07/30/2012 @ 6:18am

To end the week, there were not many changes in weather but many different opinions on yield prospects. During the day, Friday, we saw one estimate of corn yield at 122, another one at 134, and a third…

One direction for soybeans, up By: 07/20/2012 @ 4:59pm

Beans finished higher again today as this market has one direction in mind, up. August finished the day 23 3/4 higher at 1757 1/2 and for the week was 1.62 3/4 higher. The November contract was 34 higher at…

Volatile markets ahead By: 06/24/2012 @ 7:28pm

The July soybeans traded 4 higher at 1442 1/2 and the November traded 4 1/4 higher at 1375 1/2. We saw no overnight sales announcements Friday for soybeans. Weather is still the driving factor in these…

Macro factors take center stage By: 06/16/2012 @ 10:18am

Spreaders were in the soybean market today taking premium out of the July/November spread as we saw the July finish 10 lower at 1386 and the November finish 5 1/4 at 1308 3/4. Deliverable stocks of soybeans at…

Market eyes USDA data By: 06/08/2012 @ 3:30pm

July soybeans finished the day 1 cent lower at 1426 and the November contract finished 8 cents lower at 1332. We saw two export sales of soybeans announced at 8 am this morning. Egypt bought 120,000 tonnes of…

Macros sink corn By: 06/01/2012 @ 3:21pm

Closing Corn Commentary Broker Perspective: While fund trading remained quiet in corn again today, the spreaders were very active. Before the 9:30 opening there was violent outside market news which…

Corn, wheat markets face many factors By: 05/25/2012 @ 3:13pm

Closing Corn Commentary Broker Perspective: Today’s forecast put a little more rain in for mid-next week. Corn prices did not react to a large amount which is likely due to the fact that there will be…

Wheat traders eye world weather By: 05/18/2012 @ 3:09pm

Wheat Commentary Broker Perspective: Wheat closed out the week’s trading in the same manner as it traded the whole week, a sharply higher move on fund liquidation. We estimated that the funds have…

USDA right on yields By: 05/12/2012 @ 1:07pm

Both old and new crop corn saw high volume selling Friday.  New crop corn broke $5 and was below that level for the first time since Dec 17, 2010. Stop shoppers came in and bought the sub $5 corn to…

Bean market trades rumor By: 04/20/2012 @ 3:36pm

It was rumor day in the beans. Beans found strength as the market started to talk about Brazil halting exports until August. This is just a rumor and there has been no confirmation that this event has…

China rules the market news By: 04/13/2012 @ 3:05pm

China was in the news a few different ways today which suggested corn weakness.  First it was yet another day where China came in with bean purchases but didn’t come in with corn buying. Early this…

Trade can overreact to freeze By: 04/06/2012 @ 9:48am

To end the week, the corn market saw good support on light volume trade. There are a few good reasons to expect support in this corn. First, we saw good exports Thursday of 1.1 million tonnes, beating trade…

China buys soy to fill reserves By: 03/23/2012 @ 4:41pm

Closing Soybeans CommentaryFundamental Support: The soy complex finished the day higher but it was the first week since the beginning of February that the weekly charts were lower. Most of the support came…

Meat supplies drop By: 03/12/2012 @ 2:10pm

USDA numbers were not friendly for corn Friday. Trade was looking for a slight reduction of corn carryout but instead the USDA simply left US carryout alone. That carryout translates to a May corn price of 640…

Soybean market eyes Argentina By: 02/24/2012 @ 4:23pm

Closing Soybeans CommentaryFundamental Support: Beans closed higher 9 out of the last 10 sessions. For the week, May beans were up 13 cents and closed strong once again. Volume was light today with the March…

U.S. holds bean price advantage By: 02/18/2012 @ 2:51pm

Soybeans traded higher for the session finishing today at 1267 ½ per bushel, which is 9 ¼ cents higher for the day. Good export sales this morning and follow through buying from the China deal were the main…

Old, new-crop corn charts differ By: 02/10/2012 @ 3:01pm

Fundamental Support: When you look at the chart showing today’s trade, it looks almost exactly like yesterday. Corn started the day with a bounce only to spend most of the day setting back. March corn did a…

Crop estimates eyed By: 02/06/2012 @ 7:45am

Beans saw volatile trade Friday, as jobs numbers were released and outside research agencies announced their South American production estimates. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor statistics released their…

Balanced 2012 pork demand By: 01/20/2012 @ 7:00am

Soybeans closed near the session highs Thursday and could be targeting 1200 over the next few sessions. The dollar gave confidence to the bulls and helped push commodities higher. One of the main focuses…

Bearish report has long tail By: 01/13/2012 @ 5:51pm

Fundamental Support: Beans fell to finish the week. It seemed we had follow through selling from yesterday’s USDA numbers. Beans have dropped 75 cents in the last 3 days but finished the week only 38 lower…

Wheat market eyes Europe By: 01/09/2012 @ 7:22am

Continued European debt fears, interexchange wheat spreading, and weak export demand pressured the wheat market today. The market is still concerned about the potential of European bank failures and what…

Corn in review By: 01/03/2012 @ 12:19pm

To look back on the year, we had major fund investment that was larger than 2008. Corn followed that up by seeing liquidation back down to just about 100,000 contracts based on a floor estimate only to buy it…

Low $4 corn in 2012? By: 12/16/2011 @ 3:49pm

There was a good start to the day, as some profit-taking came in, we saw supportive outside markets and there was a surprise sale of corn to Japan.  Seeing a sale of corn to Japan is not uncommon but it…

Wheat is not hard to find By: 12/10/2011 @ 7:51am

The USDA surprised the market with a bearish report this morning. The government put the U.S. ending stocks at 878 million bushels. This was 50 million bushel increase from last month estimate. The increase in…

SA weather eyed By: 12/03/2011 @ 7:18am

Beans finished the week on a strong note. The funds bought another 5,000 contracts and were buyers four out of the five days this week. Beans were able to rally 29 ¼ cents this week. The weekly chart looks…

More alternative sources than ever By: 11/18/2011 @ 4:21pm

Closing Corn CommentaryFundamental Support: Today a profit taking bounce could have been expected ahead of the weekend. Instead of seeing that bounce on the opening, it appears that speculators wanted to have…

Corn falls on acreage number By: 11/11/2011 @ 3:18pm

Fundamental Support: Corn was unable to shake off the recent bearish fundamentals offered up the last two days. What trade did find was the expected support as soon as December corn fell below 640. Buyers…

Strong week for corn market By: 11/04/2011 @ 3:34pm

First thing in the morning, the corn saw its Friday setback as expected. After the first hour of trade, the average estimate on carryout was released; this was enough to push the corn market back up to the…

A 2012 net acreage increase By: 10/28/2011 @ 3:22pm

Profit-taking pushed beans lower Friday, after a big rally yesterday. The dollar found some strength and had investors taking some positions off, ahead of the weekend and the end of the month.  With…

A rotten day-Rich Nelson By: 09/30/2011 @ 8:52pm

Fundamental Support: Nothing short of a tough day here thanks to a surprisingly bearish corn stocks report. USDA’s last estimate was for 920 million bushels of stocks, trade had looked for 962, and our…

Can't call the 'bottom' By: 09/23/2011 @ 8:18pm

Wheat closed the week on a positive note. It even ignored selling pressure in the soybean and corn pits. Also the across the board selling in the outside markets that had pressured the market the past few days…

Demand sinks wheat By: 09/09/2011 @ 3:47pm

Wheat fell for the fourth day, as demand concerns continue to pressure the markets. The U.S. dollar was stronger today on continued European debt fears. World traders are worried that the financial crisis in…

Short trading week ahead By: 09/06/2011 @ 7:30am

Many will ask what changed in corn Friday to cause the rally.  To be truthful, the answer really is that nothing changed at all. Thursday was all about funds who were selling on a technical basis…

Bean weather eyed -Rich Nelson By: 08/19/2011 @ 3:11pm

Beans found strength to finish out the week. Weather is still the main concern and will be the focus as we move into next week. No major fundamental news was released today.   Outside market…

$7.22 corn price eyed -Rich Nelson By: 08/15/2011 @ 7:47am

Friday featured what appeared to be light volume trade but actually was moderate to good volume. In the end, corn ended right where it started. This relatively smooth trade gave us time to research USDA…

This week's revision report eyed By: 08/08/2011 @ 8:10am

The trade continues to look towards the August 11th report as a possible game changer with yield questions continuing to move the market. Beans have been true to its trading range as 14 proved as good…

Buying supports corn-Rich Nelson By: 07/22/2011 @ 3:37pm

Fundamental Support: Instead of a calm day waiting for the forecast, corn found early buying which continued throughout the day. Our noon forecast was spun bearish by some, yet bullish by others. Our take was…

Wheat follows corn higher-Rich Nelson By: 07/08/2011 @ 3:07pm

Wheat was able to follow corn today. Its close attachment to corn as a feed substitute has tightened their pricing relationship. Weekly export sales this morning were 16 million bushels (424,200 tonnes). That…

Optimism denied-Rich Nelson By: 06/24/2011 @ 4:41pm

Today is Friday. Many were looking for profit-taking from the recent selling. From the first moment of trade, selling was present instead. This time, funds sold despite giving a sign yesterday that they might…

Buyers to gain confidence-Rich Nelson By: 06/17/2011 @ 4:04pm

After a week of selling in this corn market, the trade expected some Friday buying to develop. What turned out was some choppy trade where corn started on a positive note, was then pulled down by beans and…

Corn bulls need fed-Rich Nelson By: 06/10/2011 @ 3:15pm

The trade was looking for a little profit-taking setback and in the December futures market that is exactly what happened Friday.  Now that we have a carryout that suggests 710 new crop price, it is hard…

Losing corn and soybean acres-Rich Nelson By: 06/05/2011 @ 8:28pm

Beans were higher all session and farmers continue to wonder why. The eastern Corn Belt has a great opportunity to plant over the next few weeks. Those farmers are ready to plant and will plant as fast as they…

Cattle placements jump-Rich Nelson By: 05/23/2011 @ 7:07am

Live Cattle: USDA’s survey of feedlots found placements, the number of new calves and feeders entering feedlots, were 9.9% larger than last year in April. This was above the trade’s expectation of a 4.5%…

Inflated China talk?-Rich Nelson By: 05/13/2011 @ 4:40pm

Fundamental Support: Rumors circulated around the corn market yesterday that China had come in and bought 1 million tonnes. The claim was that it was to be split between old and new crop. By this morning, that…

Rich Nelson: Monday crucial to market By: 05/08/2011 @ 9:52pm

Corn Fundamental Support: Heavy-selling came from a couple sources Friday. First there was a disappointing profit taking bounce seen Friday. Most were looking for those who had sold all week to buy back…

Rich Nelson: Wild spring price change By: 05/02/2011 @ 1:30pm

Corn: What a difference 24 hours can make when the funds are actively trading this market. Rumors yesterday were that European funds were selling out of long positions ahead of a 4 day weekend and today looks…

Rich Nelson: World weather problems By: 04/22/2011 @ 8:54am

Fundamental Support Wheat closed on a high note for the week, closing 14 1/2 higher on the day and 55 1/4 higher for the week. The 55 1/4 cent rally was enough to erase last week’s entire sell off…

Rich Nelson: Weather has next By: 04/08/2011 @ 3:39pm

Wheat was sharply higher on a bullish USDA report and general commodity buying driven by a weaker dollar. The Chicago May wheat contract was up 24 1/4 for the day and 38 cents for the week. Funds…

On-farm ownership falls By: 04/04/2011 @ 8:44am

Wheat CommentaryFundamental Support:Wheat saw a round of profit-taking today. There was limited new news to affect the wheat pit today. With the corn market not able to hold its limit up move early, the…

Rich Nelson: Buy rumor, sell fact By: 03/25/2011 @ 5:43pm

Fundamental Support: Buy the rumor sell the fact was the main issue facing the corn today. After the hard slide lower last week, rumors circulated that China bought over a million tonnes of corn. This was one…

Rich Nelson: Quake makes the trade nervous By: 03/11/2011 @ 3:16pm

Wheat Commentary  Fundamental Support:  The wheat market continued its downward slide today. That makes 5 lower closes in a row for those of you keeping track. For the week, the Chicago wheat…

Soybean prices surge By: 03/04/2011 @ 3:30pm

Closing Soybeans CommentaryFundamental Support: A great week was seen with the May contract picking up 44 cents. Delays in the fledgling Brazilian harvest, and problems with Argentine export approvals…

Rich Nelson: Demand market By: 02/25/2011 @ 2:57pm

Wheat CommentaryFundamental Support: Wheat rallied on strong exports and on the coat tails of the corn market which traded limit up at one time today. Weekly export sales came in today at 1.115…

Rich Nelson: Closing corn and hog commentary By: 02/07/2011 @ 8:25am

Closing Corn Commentary Fundamental Support: Yesterday the corn longs had taken their profits making this market less subject to the selling seen in other grains today. Japan bought 101,000 tonnes of…

Rich Nelson: Feed for the bulls By: 01/17/2011 @ 1:29pm

A strong weekly soybean close should keep the bull fed for now. We are targeting 1450-1475 in the short term on the March contract. Last week, profit-taking was seen early today as traders bought the close for…

Rich Nelson: USDA Report watch By: 01/07/2011 @ 4:33pm

The wheat market seems to have fundamental support. The wheat sold off today on index rebalancing and profit taking. The profit taking seems to be coming after the winter holidays instead of the end of the…

Rich Nelson: Corn to get boost By: 01/03/2011 @ 10:16am

Going into the end of the year there should be no surprise to see it end the way we have seen it trade for the entire second half, bullish. Market mentality is that funds will move back into the corn, buying…

Watch out for China -- Rich Nelson By: 12/10/2010 @ 3:11pm

It is generally thought that the December report does not make much of a wave in the markets. For once, things turned out as expected. USDA raised corn carryout slightly to 832 million bushels. This is 5…

Rich Nelson: Little USDA changes seen By: 12/03/2010 @ 3:22pm

Fundamental Support: Corn this week rose 20 1/2 cents. Big support came from the rocketing wheat market, further talk that China needs to import corn next year, and partially from Argentine corn concerns…

Rich Nelson: China slows markets By: 11/12/2010 @ 4:01pm

Fundamental Support: What a difference a day can make, especially when China comes into the picture in a big way. Just into overnight trading, China had announced that they want speculators out of their…

Rich Nelson: Spec longs run for the hills By: 10/01/2010 @ 4:04pm

Though we really laid out some rough corn news this week, the size of today’s decline was a surprise. Instead of new month and new quarter buying here, we saw a ton of speculative longs run for the hills. By…

Rich Nelson: Highest corn close in two years By: 09/24/2010 @ 3:54pm

The highest close of the corn uptrend was reached today. It is oddly interesting to note this was the highest close since September 26, 2008. That is almost two years ago. Of course, at that level, the…

Rich Nelson: Massive corn rally By: 09/17/2010 @ 4:36pm

Corn: We are not interested in picking apart why exactly today’s big move was seen. It is simply another day in a massive rally. The primary driver of price remains perceptions of yield falling to 160…

Rich Nelson: Nothing bullish about high stocks By: 08/13/2010 @ 3:33pm

Direction: Having pointed out the good news for this week we can also discuss the issues that all traders must turn to when looking at supply/demand tables. Even after plugging in drought problems we are still…

Rich Nelson: No technical resistance to slow markets By: 08/01/2010 @ 11:00pm

By Rich NelsonAllendale Inc., Director of ResearchSoybeans: Overnight saw the European wheat market making new contract highs once again. With no change to their forecast, they were off to the races once …

Rich Nelson: No technical resistance to slow markets By: 07/30/2010 @ 11:00pm

By Rich NelsonAllendale Inc., Director of ResearchSoybeans: Overnight saw the European wheat market making new contract highs once again. With no change to their forecast, they were off to the races once …

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